Arizona's crisis is over -- its most reliable measure of the spread of Covid-19, the days-to-double mortalities, is back to where it started before the summer outbreak. Florida and Texas aren't far behind. Of the four sunbelt hotspots, California is the only laggard -- and it's the one that responded with the most severe lockdowns. Will we never learn?
Covid-2019
Covid-2019
Tuesday, August 18, 2020
Here's an amazing statistic. Kind of puts things in perspective. Worldwide, out of 10,000 people, how many have died from Covid-2019? Wait for it... ...one.
Covid-2019
Monday, August 17, 2020
It's amazing what you can get used to, but with 169 thousand new cases yesterday worldwide, it seems like a good day, because the day before there were 201 thousand. But things really are getting better. In the US, 40 states are now in declining two-week trajectories for new cases. And see "Recommended Reading" for a sudden effusion of new studies showing that patients once infected don't tend to get infected a second time.
Covid-2019
Sunday, August 16, 2020
New cases fall overall world-wide, and in every continent but Africa, and the global case fatality rate continues its secular decline (looking at the moment like it wants to flatten out at about 3%, eventually). Our Texas congressman Gohmert, age 67, is now Covid-free, having been treated with -- see if you can guess (see "Recommended Reading")! Florida takes the lead for US state with largest share of population tested positive.
Covid-2019
Saturday, August 15, 2020
A wholesale revision in reporting deaths drops the UK's cumulative case fatality rate from about 15%, among the worst in the world, to 13%, well, still among the worst in the world. In the US, testing is at a near-record 840,000 per day -- yet the front page of the New York Times leads with "‘We’re Clearly Not Doing Enough’: Drop in Testing Hampers Coronavirus Response" (see our "Recommended Reading" page, but don't believe it).
Covid-2019
Friday, August 14, 2020
US new cases fall. But testing anomalies -- possibly political scandals -- have emerged in both Texas and Florida, driving wild day-to-day swings in test numbers and positivity-rates. In Europe, new-case reporting falls apart, with France and Spain reporting zero half the time (forcing us to smooth out their charts). Our conclusion: the institutions that have been drafted to handle this crisis are facing exhaustion.
Covid-2019
Thursday, August 13, 2020
After a week of improvement everywhere, a backwards day with global cases rising. There's a weird data anomaly in the reporting of US testing -- a sudden drop, leading to the appearance of a jump in test-positivity. Some labs, especially in Florida, are failing to report negatives (Sen. Marco Rubio had to tweet about it yesterday).
Covid-2019
Wednesday, August 12, 2020
New US cases fell overall, even though they rose in all four sunbelt hotspot states -- especially California, on the same day that Governor Newsom said things were getting better. Arizona, the hardest hit state other than New York, has definitely turned the corner. Days-to-double fatalities is now firmly sub-exponential.
Covid-2019
Tuesday, August 11, 2020
New cases fall in all four US sunbelt hotspot states. The national test-positivity rate falls back below 6%. If there ever was a second wave in the US, it is definitely over.
Covid-2019
Monday, August 10, 2020
A very good day, given what we're given. New cases and deaths lower almost everywhere. The four US sunbelt hotspot states are all now on the best-five list for declining case trajectories. The worst-five list now includes Illinois, Massachusetts and New Jersey, states that the media had celebrated for "doing it right."