Modest new-case uptick in the four sunbelt hotspot states, but no new highs. Six US states are now in two-week case trajectories, including Arizona and Texas. Testing, and the positivity rate, have stabilized nationally. So much "Recommended Reading" today -- including the suppressed "frontline doctors" video, and the infamous FOMC #METOO blog post -- there's no room for a "Meme of the Day."
Covid-2019
Covid-2019
Wednesday, July 29, 2020
Only two US states -- Arizona and Utah -- are in two-week downward trajectories for new cases. But to put that in a larger context, hard-hit Texas's and Arizona's new-case curves in the "case accelerometer" are now virtually flat. So is lockdown-lite Sweden's, at the same time as some European neighbors are seeing a flare-up. India shows no sign of flattening the curve, but Africa is gradually improving.
Covid-2019
Tuesday, July 28, 2020
Continued good news in most places in the world, especially the US sunbelt hotspot states. Cases fell in Arizona, California, Florida and Texas. The test-positivity rate is now falling in 20 US states. Looking like the summer flare-up is getting ready to be over.
Covid-2019
Monday, July 27, 2020
New cases down globally, as no place got much worse and lots of places got better. New cases, new fatalities and the test-positivity rate all fall in all four US sunbelt hotspot states. Texas and Arizona are in the top five states for declining new case and test-positivity trajectories.
Covid-2019
Sunday, July 26, 2020
Arizona surpasses New York for the largest number of cases as a share of population, at 2.2%. But Arizona's "case accelerometer" line is bending over -- even the New York Times gives the Grand Canyon State credit for flattening the curve without extreme lockdowns (see "Recommended Reading"). Amidst the whole sunbelt summer flareup, its small magnitude relative to the debacle of March and April has barely been able to tilt the overall US case curve higher. And by the way, don't miss our bonus memes commemorating Dr. Fauci's first pitch.
Covid-2019
Saturday, July 25, 2020
In the sunbelt hotspots, looks like California and Arizona have turned the corner. Texas and Florida are close, days-to-double fatalities are still narrowing. In "Recommended Reading," be sure to see the CDC's new report on re-opening schools -- that's the big political and economic battleground now.
Covid-2019
Friday, July 24, 2020
New cases decline in most countries, with India now the most alarming global hotspot. The case-mortality rate is rising now in Arizona and Texas, from very low numbers to still-low numbers. Days-to-double mortalities has started to lengthen out in Arizona, confirming in the most certain way that the spread is now sub-exponential. New research shows the March lockdowns were so severe that the already-small seismic shocks from ordinary human activity were measurably less.
Covid-2019
Thursday, July 23, 2020
Global new cases rise with India in the lead (their data is subject to revision). US cases fall slightly, with hard-hit Arizona continuing to improve markedly. Of the sunbelt hotspots, California is the only one to post new-high cases. The modelers at the University of Washington have slightly revised down their fatality forecasts, seemingly bowing to the reality that fewer Covid-19 patients are dying now, but they haven't published their reasoning in a month now.
Covid-2019
Wednesday, July 22, 2020
The sunbelt hot-spots continue to stop getting worse, which is the necessary precursor to starting to get better. Arizona continues to be top-five for a falling test-positivity rate, and the others -- California, Florida and Texas -- have fallen out of the ranks of the worst five.
Covid-2019
Tuesday, July 21, 2020
For the first time we can remember, new cases are down in all four US sun-belt hotspots. Overall US deaths below 400. We don't think the last month's outbreak ever deserved to be called a second wave, but whatever you call it, it seems to be in the process of ending.