Fauci capitulates, saying we're "getting this under control." Not sure it's control, or just outlasting it. But the numbers are suddenly looking better. Arizona continues to show a two week declining case trajectory, and all four sun-belt hot-spot states are in two-week test positivity-rate declines.
Covid-2019
Covid-2019
Sunday, July 19, 2020
A day of big improvement, possibly a turning point. New cases down almost everywhere, including all four sunbelt hot-spot states. Especially encouraging to see Arizona, which was hit the hardest, now recovering the most robustly -- it is among the top 5 US states now in both declining case trajectory and test positivity-rate trajectory.
Covid-2019
Saturday, July 18, 2020
US testing makes another new daily high, yet new cases fall -- the case-mortality rate continues to decline. The sunbelt hotspots are generally steady, with Texas making a new high for daily cases, but also showing the most recoveries. Worldwide new cases fell, and the mortality rate continues to decline.
Covid-2019
Friday, July 17, 2020
A new high for daily tests in the US at 831,000, and the positivity rate is stable in the mid-8's. The US case-fatality rate continues to fall, among the lowest in the world, and a small fraction of Europe's hard-cases Italy, Spain, France and the UK -- even better than EU top-performer Germany. Global new cases make a new high at 256,000, more than three times China's cumulative cases. Yet the economies of the world continue to re-open, treating these large numbers with less panic than they used to treat larger ones.
Covid-2019
Thursday, July 16, 2020
Arizona's case curve is finally beginning to flatten, approaching New York's level of just above 2 per cent of population. Its case-fatality rate has turned upward, but the mortality curve has already flattened out at about one quarter of New York's level. It's been a bad outbreak to be sure, but not at all a replay of New York. The other sun-belt hot spots are doing even better. Yesterday's media reports about Moderna's vaccine trial were conflicting. Read for yourself the original research in "Recommended Reading" -- the "adverse reactions" were trivialities.
Covid-2019
Wednesday, July 15, 2020
In the sunbelt hotspots, still large numbers of new cases and relatively few fatalities. There's another update from the modelers in Washington, sharply revising down their absurdly high estimates for beds and ventilators, three months after the fact, and with no explanation. Their projection for fatalities has been altered too, to remove never-explained kinks in the curve, and to bring closer in time their estimate for peak deaths, just several weeks out, also with no explanation.
Covid-2019
Tuesday, July 14, 2020
New cases fall worldwide third day in a row, and US fatalities move down the world ranks to fourth. Cases fall in Arizona, California, Florida and Texas -- makes California's move back toward lockdowns yesterday look poorly timed.
Covid-2019
Monday, July 13, 2020
New cases fall worldwide for the second day in a row, even while Florida sets a record for a US state. Fatalities low globally again. Arizona is the US only hot-spot where the case-fatality rate has worsened, though only slightly.
Covid-2019
Sunday, July 12, 2020
On the case accelerometer, Arizona is starting to challenge New York for share of population tested positive. But fatalities would have to more than quadruple to beat New York's mortality record.
Covid-2019
Saturday, July 11, 2020
Testing in the US makes a new high at 823,000 per day, with almost 40 million cumulative. The positivity-rate is stuck at about 8%, so reported cases keep growing at a constant pace.