The second wave is over for sure. 31 US states now show a declining two-week new-case trajectory, including all four of the notorious sunbelt hotspots. The developing world is now the worst-case, especially South America, whose nations now dominate the top-ten for new daily cases.
Covid-2019
Covid-2019
Saturday, August 8, 2020
A majority of US states now show declining trajectories in both new cases and test-positivity. If there ever was a second wave, it's over now. Yet the latest model update from Washington has upgraded expected deaths by November by 20,000, with another 45,000 in December alone. Wear your mask just in case, but remember these models have been wrong about literally everything every time.
Covid-2019
Friday, August 7, 2020
A quiet day world-wide for new cases. Reported fatalities rise, especially in the US, as the lagged effect of the July flare-up.
Covid-2019
Wednesday, August 5, 2020
New case growth in what has been called the second wave has definitively rolled over, but fatalities occur with a lag. So while days-to-double fatalities is our most reliable growth-rate indicator, it is the last to turn. Arizona, Florida and Texas have turned now (California was never as much a problem). By that metric, Australia and Israel are the worst, with no turnaround in sight -- both of them were top performers in March and April, now the most at risk.
Covid-2019
Wednesday, August 5, 2020
The number of new cases grew world-wide, but fell in the US. Australia is having an especially hard time, with days-to-double deaths showing supra-exponential spread of the virus. But the absolute numbers of fatalities are small in this low-population nation, and the case-fatality rate remains among the world's lowest. See "Recommended Reading" for a horrifying story about how Melbourne is repeating New York's lethal error in repatriating nursing home patients.
Covid-2019
Tuesday, August 4, 2020
New cases are suddenly collapsing almost everywhere, even Africa and Brazil, and in all four US sunbelt hotspot states (all of which now lead the US in declining case trend). Considering the diversity of public health response around the world and around the US and the synchrony of the case collapse, we reaffirm our view that the virus is on its own schedule that isn't much affected by what we do or don't do to try to control it.
Covid-2019
Monday, August 3, 2020
Another good day, as the 7-day average of global new cases turns down for the first time since April. Japan and Australia are in the hot-zone with rising cases, but while the direction is wrong the raw numbers are small.
Covid-2019
Sunday, August 2, 2020
Except for a big jump in Japan, new cases were down almost everywhere in the world yesterday.
Covid-2019
Saturday, August 1, 2020
Other than Arizona, new cases fall in all the sunbelt hotspot states. But Florida now tops New York for cumulative cases as a share of population (Arizona is in first place). Now 9 US states are in declining two-week case trajectories (Monday it was just 2). Meanwhile, the modelers in Washington up their US death forecast by 11,000 with a glitchy-looking kink higher in October -- and not so much as a word of explanation.
Covid-2019
Friday, July 31, 2020
New cases fall overall world-wide. They're rising in places like Australia, Japan and the United Kingdom where victory had been declared too early. They're stabilizing in Africa, Israel and the US sunbelt hotspots. Florida surpassed New York today for share of population testing positive, at 2.15%. California is the only one of the four hotspot states not to have a declining two-week case trajectory -- we really have turned the corner. Check out "Recommended Reading" to find out what "fomites" are any why you don't need to fear them anymore.