No reason to worry now about rising new cases in the US. Testing is at a new all-time high, but the test-positivity ratio is near all-time lows.
Covid-2019
Covid-2019
Saturday, October 17, 2020
With new cases pushing out to attention-getting new highs in Europe, it's comforting to look at our "accelerometers." The growth curve of new infections was far steeper in the winter and spring than it is now.
Covid-2019
Friday, October 16, 2020
New cases seem to be jumping off the charts all over Europe. But check out our most revealing metric of growth: days-to-double fatalities. Nothing to see. Growth in Europe remains stubbornly sub-exponential.
Covid-2019
Thursday, October 15, 2020
New cases in Europe continue to post new highs -- Italy and Switzerland join the club today. But still no serious reversions to the economically devastating lockdowns of March and April.
Covid-2019
Wednesday, October 14, 2020
Trump's rapid recovery shows the value of therapeutics in the absence of a vaccine. The case fatality rate in the US used to be over 6%. For the last two weeks it's been 1.8%. That's real progress.
Covid-2019
Tuesday, October 13, 2020
The "casedemic" pattern gets more and more pronounced. Near-record world cases, but no country even reports 1,000 fatalities. US fatalities down to 318.
Covid-2019
Monday, October 12, 2020
With new cases rising to new highs in Europe, it's time to look at Sweden again, with its non-coercive "lockdown lite" policy. New cases nowhere near the summer highs. Deaths yesterday: zero. 2-week case fatality rate: 0.26%. We'll see what tomorrow brings, but at the moment Sweden looks like the model for "doing it right."
Covid-2019
Sunday, October 11, 2020
The modelers at IHME have altered their US fatality forecasts yet again. A month ago, it was 3,600 per day at year-end; last week, 2,900; now, 2,300. Hats off to them, for recognizing that Covid-19 is getting less lethal, and for not insisting on the worst-case scare-scenario despite the facts.
Covid-2019
Saturday, October 10, 2020
New cases continue to rise in Europe, even Italy, which at first didn't look like it was going to get a second wave. So far it's all cases and few fatalities, and new quarantine measures are fairly trivial. See "Recommended Reading" for a good account of Europe's "lockdown fatigue."
Covid-2019
Friday, October 9, 2020
World new cases continue to rise, led by Europe and Asia. But the world cumulative case-fatality rate continues to fall, with the 2-week CFR below 2%, and far below the cumulative CFR. At the moment, the world is learning to live with the virus.