Even as new US cases rise and dominate the headlines, the modelers at the University of Washington's IHME have revised down their mortality forecasts, still peaking in late January, but now at a somewhat lower level. It's great to see them following the science -- we're learning that more cases don't have to mean more fatalities.
Covid-2019
Covid-2019
Monday, November 16, 2020
With this morning's report, we introduce a new US "deep dive" panel on page 3 in response to numerous requests from clients and friends. For the first time we are displaying time-series charts of hospitalization and ICU and ventilator utilization. There are also clearer displays of testing and the test-positivity ratio, and the days-to-double mortality indicator.
Covid-2019
Sunday, November 15, 2020
US testing still at the highs, above 2.5 million per day. Cumulatively, the US has administered 279 million tests. Positivity-rates still far lower than in March and April when only the most ill patients were getting tested.
Covid-2019
Saturday, November 14, 2020
Is Japan's days-to-double mortalities indicator really showing hyper-exponential spread of the virus? Yes -- but. There were only 13 deaths in Japan today, but this is up from a reliable single-digit pace over past months. Rate of spread can be deceiving with such low numbers.
Covid-2019
Friday, November 13, 2020
Cases surge, fatalities don't -- no country with even 700 deaths today. Compare the case and mortality accelerometers -- the "ski jump" slopes in cases is obvious in several large countries, but you can barely see a change in mortalities. In other news, check "Recommended Reading" to see that the New York Times has admitted there was election fraud.
Covid-2019
Thursday, November 12, 2020
US deaths jump above 2,000. Unlike the March/April onslaught, it's not concentrated in just a few deadly hot-spots. Illinois is the only state reporting over 100, and the top ten states are only 55% of the fatalities. That geographic dispersion is good news for hospital capacity utilization.
Covid-2019
Wednesday, November 11, 2020
In Europe, our most reliable indicator of the rate of spread, days-to-double fatalities, has now become exponential. While reliable, this is a lagging indicator. The good news is that new daily cases, which ultimately lead to fatalities, are finally falling. In the US, the national test-positivity rate is rising, but there is a growing number of individual states where it is moving up.
Covid-2019
Tuesday, November 10, 2020
US testing makes new all-time highs, as do new cases -- in part because there is so much testing. Fatalities are a more true indicator, not driven by testing. While the enormous third-wave of cases is far worse than the spring first-wave, fatalities are fewer -- under 1,000 per day in 13 of the last 20 days.
Covid-2019
Monday, November 9, 2020
Pfizer's announcement of its successful phase 3 vaccine test will be an interesting test itself -- how will good news about Covid-19 be received now that the election is over?
Covid-2019
Sunday, November 8, 2020
New daily US cases fall, but still at a very elevated level. The test-positivity rate has risen back up to its summer levels, with five state above 30%. There's always a lag between infection and possible death, but the fatalities just aren't there so far. The 2-week fatality rate is almost a full percentage point below the cumulative rate.