New cases fall everywhere in the world, stuck in the same high-level consolidation where they've been for the last month. The US was the only country to report more than 1,000 fatalities.
Covid-2019
Covid-2019
Sunday, December 6, 2020
Europe's new daily cases peaked three weeks ago, and have fallen by one-third. The great epistemological question: did new partial lockdowns do the trick, or was the spread of infection topping out anyway? In the US, with cases still rising, there is no evidence that relative degrees of lockdown among states has made any difference at all.
Covid-2019
Saturday, December 5, 2020
The modelers at the University of Washington's IHME have upped their US mortality estimates a bit -- surprisingly little, considering the winter flare-up. They've moved out the peak to January 13 (from January 8) at 2,971 mortalities (from 2,562).
Covid-2019
Friday, December 4, 2020
New daily cases break to new highs. New York isn't quite back to the April peak, but mostly -- showing that its more intense and more costly lockdown since then hasn't been importantly effective compared to other states that opened more.
Covid-2019
Thursday, December 3, 2020
Final comment on our new US demographic deep-dive on page 4, before we return to more timely headlines. Per CDC analysis, "For 6% of the deaths, COVID-19 was the only cause... For deaths with conditions or causes in addition to COVID-19, on average, there were 2.6 additional conditions or causes per death."
Covid-2019
Wednesday, December 2, 2020
More from our new US demographic deep-dive on page 4. African-Americans have been 14.2% of cases, 1.7% more than implied by share of population. But they've been 18.6% of fatalities, 6.1% more than implied by population. The case-fatality rate is 6.0%, second highest among racial/ethnic groups (again, Asian-Americans are first).
Covid-2019
Tuesday, December 1, 2020
More surprising facts from our new demographics charts on page 4. Asian-Americans are under-represented in numbers of cases and fatalities. But their case-fatality rate, at 7%, is the highest of all groups. Hispanics are over-represented in cases and under-represented in fatalities, so their case-fatality rate, at 3%, is far lower.
Covid-2019
Monday, November 30, 2020
Today we introduce a new data-set on page 4: a deep-dive into the demographics of US cases and fatalities by age, race and comorbidity. One key takeaway: persons over 65 are only 14.5% of cases, but they are 80.1% of fatalities.
Covid-2019
Sunday, November 29, 2020
US holiday-linked data anomalies are over with. Cases fall dramatically even with almost every state reporting.
Covid-2019
Saturday, November 28, 2020
Several clients and friends have asked how US holiday non-reporting of cases and fatalities affects our charts and tables. We've smoothed away artifacts in some situations, but not others. So there will be internal contradictions between our displays today and yesterday -- but our best analytical indicators have been smoothed all along, so the high-level view is clear.