The data is still distorted due to Christmas non-reporting and subsequent catch-up. We continue to think the underlying trends are improving.
Covid-2019
Covid-2019
Saturday, December 26, 2020
As expected, about a third of US states and several countries reported no data over Christmas, so cases appear artificially low (and will artificially bounce back). But ratios such as the test-positivity rate should still be reliable, and they are improving steadily in the US, with 31 states now showing an optimistic 2-week trend.
Covid-2019
Friday, December 25, 2020
Merry Christmas! Covid-19 doesn't take a day off, so neither do we. But many of our data sources, mostly government agencies, do... so there are going to be some distortions. We do our best to make the necessary adjustments, but we can't fix all of them. So over the holiday weekend trends will probably look artificially better, and then next week they will look artificially worse.
Covid-2019
Thursday, December 24, 2020
The data will be distorted over the holiday week. But today's data is probably about right, and it now shows a majority of US states in declining case and test-positivity trends.
Covid-2019
Wednesday, December 23, 2020
The modelers at the University of Washington's IHME have upped their estimates of fatalities through Q1 by 59,000, the highest ever, after months of lower estimates. Probably bad timing, because case growth and the test-positivity rate in the US are rolling over.
Covid-2019
Tuesday, December 22, 2020
In "Recommended Reading," the double-negative of the day (standard expert-speak): "BioNTech’s co-founder says there is no evidence its vaccine would not work on the new virus variant."
Covid-2019
Monday, December 21, 2020
In response to questions and requests from clients and friends, we're adding to our "10 worst US states" scorecard on page 2 a new display of hospital bed and ICU capacity utilization. You just might be surprised that "saturation of the health care system" has been exaggerated by the media.
Covid-2019
Sunday, December 20, 2020
Meet "VUI-202012/01", a "new variant" of the coronavirus. UK health officials are justifying new lockdowns because it "spreads so much faster." Yet they say there is "no evidence" that it is milder. So what is the "evidence" it spreads faster? Oh, and what is the evidence that lockdowns are the solution, even if it does?
Covid-2019
Saturday, December 19, 2020
And now there are two. The FDA grants emergency use approval to Moderna's vaccine.
Covid-2019
Friday, December 18, 2020
The American Medical Association officially permits the use of hydroxychloroquine to treat Covid-19. No. Wait. It doesn't.