Of all the jurisdictions we track in detail, Arizona is the worst in terms of share of the population having tested positive. Today it breaks new ground at 1000.03 basis points, slightly more than 10% of the population. For the first time in many months, we have to rescale the "case accelerometer" on page 9.
Covid-2019
Covid-2019
Monday, January 25, 2021
Of the 50 US states, and District of Columbia and Puerto Rico, only Texas and Virginia are not in two-week downtrends for new cases.
Covid-2019
Sunday, January 24, 2021
The second day for the US with well more than a million vaccine doses administered. The WHO instructs labs to turn down the sensitivity on tests. CNN eliminates its on-screen death counter. Did something happen last week that, all of a sudden, that has caused us to turn the corner?
Covid-2019
Saturday, January 23, 2021
41 US states are now in two-week downtrends for new cases, even California. Not a moment too soon. We're publishing this morning from locked-down Los Angeles. We've seen good times and bad here in our home city over many decades -- but we've never seen it look as bad as this.
Covid-2019
Friday, January 22, 2021
The CDC claims 2.09 million shots of the new vaccines have been administered in long-term care facilities. There are only 1.4 million LTC residents, so the implication is that half of them have had two doses already. We are now tracking this on our vaccines display on page 3.
Covid-2019
Thursday, January 21, 2021
4,409 -- a new high for daily US fatalities. Of all the flawed measures, deaths are the most accurate, but they lag. More forward-looking, 31 states are now in 2-week downtrends for new cases, and 45 for the case-positivity ratio. With 5% of the population now vaccinated with at least one shot, the "dark winter" can't last much longer.
Covid-2019
Wednesday, January 20, 2021
With the 3-day weekend, HHS didn't report vaccine updates for 4 days. Now they have, and they are reporting no new distributions at all (that can't be right). 860,000 doses have been administered per day. Two-thirds through January, we had hoped for more -- but it's hard to complain when a vaccine that was supposed to take four years to develop is on the market in mere months.
Covid-2019
Tuesday, January 19, 2021
US testing is surging again, a new high of 3.5 million per day. As a result, 37 states have a falling 2-week test-positivity ratio, while only 14 have a falling 2-week case trend.
Covid-2019
Monday, January 18, 2021
The modelers at the University of Washington's IHME updated their forecast model after a three week holiday hiatus, and their pushing out by four weeks their call for the top in fatalities -- from January 4 to February 1.
Covid-2019
Sunday, January 17, 2021
Today we introduce the ranking of state-by-state vaccinations, as a share of population, sorted into one-shot and two-shots. The national leader for two shots is Alaska, at 1.3% of population. It's a start. Unfortunately Alaska is the third youngest state by median age -- not exactly the population who most needs that second shot.