Nice improvement in all metrics for the US, possibly following Europe's pattern of having topped out two weeks ago.
Covid-2019
Covid-2019
Thursday, November 26, 2020
The Supremes send a Thanksgiving message to families separated today by government edict. Gorsuch: “It is time -- past time -- to make plain that, while the pandemic poses many grave challenges, there is no world in which the Constitution tolerates color-coded executive edicts that reopen liquor stores and bike shops but shutter churches, synagogues, and mosques.”
Covid-2019
Wednesday, November 25, 2020
US cases, case-fatality rates, and test-positivity rates still falling. But yesterday was the worst day for daily fatalities since May. Because of natural lag between individual infection and individual fatality, it's not surprising to see fatalities still rise after new cases have potentially peaked.
Covid-2019
Tuesday, November 24, 2020
The tentative turnaround in the horrible data continues. New cases in the worst hot-spots in Europe, such as France, continue to crash. In the US, the test-positivity rate falls again, and the days-to-double mortalities expands by one.
Covid-2019
Monday, November 23, 2020
After a horrible week, a couple of good days. New daily cases fall everywhere, especially in Europe. US fatalities under 900, and the test-positivity rate down flattening out nationwide, and starting to fall in some hard-hit states.
Covid-2019
Sunday, November 22, 2020
The modelers at the University of Washington's IHME, after months of revising their fatality estimates lower, have now raised them. They say US daily deaths will now peak at 2,562 on January 8, up from 2,143 on January 18. But their estimates of hospitalization and ICU and ventilator utilization haven't budged.
Covid-2019
Saturday, November 21, 2020
US testing is now almost at 3 million per day. The positivity rate is higher than in the summer surge, but far below the March-April peak. Spread is exponential, no doubt about that. Yet the 2-week case-fatality ratio is falling, so while the virus is spreading, its lethality is less fearsome than was thought six months ago.
Covid-2019
Friday, November 20, 2020
According to our days-to-double fatalities metric, Covid-19 is now spreading "exponentially" in the US. The temptation to do more lockdowns -- which show no evidence of helping -- is ever-present. We've seen short periods of exponential spread before, and it's not clear what causes it, or what always eventually ends it. This morning Pfizer applied for emergency authorization for its new vaccine, and that's going to be a game changer.
Covid-2019
Thursday, November 19, 2020
Here's a serious question. China only reports symptomatic cases, but only 21 today? Zero deaths? Like much official data, it is suspect on the face of it. But even if it is directionally true... how? What's the secret?
Covid-2019
Wednesday, November 18, 2020
New daily US case are almost six times what they were in April, but hospitalizations are only 15% higher. Only a quarter of a percent of new cases are going into ICU, and less than a tenth of a percent on ventilators.