World new cases have essentially been in a plateau at about 250,000 per day for more than two months. The hot-spots have shifted around, but that has been a steady pace, only very gently rising, for the world overall.
Covid-2019
Covid-2019
Thursday, October 8, 2020
World new cases make all-time highs, while the US is well below the summer highs. Getting harder to make the case that the US is uniquely bad. But the new cases worldwide are only drifting higher, not accelerating. Our days-to-double-deaths charts show that growth is sub-exponential everywhere but Israel.
Covid-2019
Tuesday, October 6, 2020
However you may feel about Trump and his tweets, we think this one yesterday had much empathy and wisdom: "Don’t be afraid of Covid. Don’t let it dominate your life."
Covid-2019
Monday, October 5, 2020
Lots of media stories about how cases are rising in the US. They are, gently, but the test-positivity rate falls. And cases are falling hard in the two most notorious open-up states, Georgia and Florida.
Covid-2019
Sunday, October 4, 2020
The case-reporting institutions continue to make the same mistake over and over, and always in the direction of the alarming. The UK is the latest, reporting almost a doubling of new cases in a single day, but admitting in a footnote that this includes previously unrecorded cases from prior weeks, all lumped into a single day. We're going to smooth it out of our charts.
Covid-2019
Saturday, October 3, 2020
US cases are rising, but testing is at a new all-time high, and the test-positivity rate keeps falling. That means unambiguously that the rise in cases is due to the rise in testing.
Covid-2019
Friday, October 2, 2020
We offer our hopes and prayers for President Trump and the First Lady, who have tested positive for Covid-19.
Covid-2019
Thursday, October 1, 2020
Good news for Europe. UK new cases make a new high, but Spain looks like it is rolling over.
Covid-2019
Wednesday, September 30, 2020
After last night's presidential debates, we are featuring two new charts. One, based on the Biden model, shows how many deaths were caused by Trump personally. The other, based on the Trump model, shows how many more deaths would have been caused if Biden had been in charge. What a world.
Covid-2019
Tuesday, September 29, 2020
US testing is almost at an all-time high. But at 3.82%, the we're just 4 bp away from matching the all-time low test-positivity ratio achieved in June (before what has been called the second wave).