A miss in claims, and a sharp uptick in implied unemployment to the highest level since March. Noise? Holiday-week distortion? Or first step to recession? Only her central banker knows for sure.
High-Freq Data Monitor
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, November 17, 2022
This morning James Bullard called for a 7% policy rate -- because he doesn't like the fact that the data, including today's beats in new jobless claims, isn't showing signs of recession. He might want to note, instead, that year-on-year inflation has been falling steadily since June.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, November 10, 2022
The only soft spot in the high-frequency data is year-ahead S&P 500 forward earnings. It's not trivial to see it sagging a bit -- but nothing else we track is sagging at all.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, November 3, 2022
Powell to high-frequency data: "I'll huff and I'll puff and I'll push on a string." After 4-1/2 months of extreme rate hikes, no sign of weakness.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, October 27, 2022
With this week's edition, we say goodbye to an old friend. Google has discontinued publishing mobility data from tracking cellphones. A sign that the Covid crisis is over (or that Google is having to cut back on non-revenue generating non-necessities).
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, October 20, 2022
There's some evidence of cooling -- not yet chilling -- in some of the data. But the all-important labor market, as reflected in jobless claims, remains "weirdly resilient" no matter how much the Fed tries to poison it.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, October 13, 2022
If you insist on believing that too many people with jobs creates inflation, then you can blame another week of high-frequency data in which claims refuse to crack no matter what the Fed does -- and all those nasty inflation-producing workers insist on eating in restaurants and flying on airplanes despite admonishments from their betters.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, October 6, 2022
Oh joy. New claims and continuing claims overshot the consensus -- so hopefully that will satisfy Powell's appetite for human misery this week. Sadly (from Powell's perspective), while they missed, they are still at historically low levels. Life is good -- for the moment.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, September 29, 2022
Powell thinks joblessness fixes inflation. He'll be disappointed that new and continuing claims beat the consensus again, and that the claims-implied unemployment rate fell. Beatings will increase until morale improves.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, September 22, 2022
New claims and continuing claims low again, beat expectations again. The high-frequency data looks great across the board. The economy doesn't seem to be responding as planned to the Fed's sadistic policy program.