High-frequency banking data continues to improve, with new loans and leases since Silicon Valley Bank failed now at just under $50 billion. The problem is that over a typical six-month period it's three or four times that...
High-Freq Data Monitor
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, August 24, 2023
The high-frequency data is improving across the board, giving some credence to that crazy-seeming Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate. And according to Truflation, August CPI is coming in about flat!
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, August 17, 2023
A new feature on the last page: a running estimate from Truflation of this month's CPI, at an annual rate. Spoiler alert: it's 2.73%, just 23 bp above the Fed's CPI target.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, August 10, 2023
The most troubling thing in the high-frequency data remains the fact that there has been pretty much no growth in bank loans and leases since Silicon Valley Bank failed.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, August 3, 2023
Yes, it concerns us that the consensus is turning toward "no recession," where we've correctly been for 19 nervous months. But the high-frequency data continues to justify our view, with beats today in both new and continuing claims.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, July 27, 2023
The labor market continues to confound Powell, with beats in new and continuing claims that drive the implied unemployment rate to the lowest level since February.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, July 20, 2023
We were worried the hot weather would drive a spike in new claims, but no -- a nice beat, and a drop in the claims-implied unemployment rate. Of course the Fed will think this represents an inflationary emergency, even as the real-time Truflation gauge turns outright negative for the last 31 days.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, July 13, 2023
Other than a weather-related drop in rail-freight loadings, the high-frequency data looks great. A beat in new claims lowers the implied unemployment rate, showing no signs of any kind of landing.
Meanwhile, huge dovish beats in the Producer Price Index more than confirm yesterday's disinflationary signal in CPI. We've updated yesterday's Data Insights: CPI/PPI, so click here.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, July 6, 2023
Claims fall, minutes after ADP announces almost half a million new payrolls in June. The panoply of high-frequency data isn't pointing to torrid growth, to be sure -- but there's no recession in the offing.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, June 29, 2023
Six quarters into a relentless "recession is coming" narrative, the claims-implied unemployment rate falls to 1.36% on solid beats in both new and continuing claims.