Recession will have to wait another week -- jobless claims beat, at an amazingly low level. In other news, Q4 core PCE inflation has been revised down to exactly 2% at an annual rate. Not 1.99%. Not 2.01%. 2.0%. That's sticking the no-landing.
High-Freq Data Monitor
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, March 21, 2024
If this productivity-led boom were softening, we'd see it in the high-frequency data first, but we don't. New and existing claims, already at low levels, beat expectations yet again, leaving the implied unemployment rate at 1.3%. The only worrisome spot is the Truflation real-time measure of March inflation, not showing over 10% at an annual rate. It's volatile and somewhat erratic, and was showing outright deflation in March just 10 tens ago. But something to keep an eye on...
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, March 14, 2024
As S&P 500 forward earnings grind every day to a new all-time high, big beats in both new and existing claims. The high-frequency data continues to defy recession fears. Meanwhile, as February PPI comes in hot, the real-time Truflation measure shows CPI cooling to below-target levels for the first half of March.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, March 7, 2024
Very slight misses in claims -- and Truflation's March CPI so far shows outright deflation, after a somewhat hot February thanks to food.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, February 29, 2024
Slight misses in new and continuing claims. But as S&P 500 earnings push out to new all-time highs, the high-frequency data is looking great.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, February 22, 2024
It's this simple. If you don't have a contraction in jobs, you don't have a recession. If you don't have a rise in claims, you won't have a contraction in jobs. Claims beat this morning, both new and continuing. They beat at amazingly low levels. No risk of recession. Move along.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, February 15, 2024
A beat in claims, below an already low consensus, takes the edge off a disappointing retail sales headline. All is well.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, February 8, 2024
Last week's misses in new and continuing claims have become this week's beats, affirming the blockbuster January labor numbers. All is well.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, February 1, 2024
Little misses from insanely low levels in new and continuing claims bump the implied unemployment rate to 1.45%. Not exactly a recession indicator.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, January 25, 2024
This morning's reported boom in Q4-23 GDP is beautiful but backward-looking. This morning's high-frequency data is just as beautiful, and beautifully contemporaneous. If you want a recession, you're going to have to wait. And wait...