A great start to the new year in high-frequency data, with nice beats in both new and continuing claims, and our "Truflation" CPI estimate showing mild deflation as December wraps up.
High-Freq Data Monitor
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, December 26, 2024
We end the year of high-frequency data with a beat in new claims, and the lowest claims-implied unemployment rate since February. And with a couple days to go, our "Truflation" real-time CPI estimate shows outright deflation at an 0.60% annual rate.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, December 19, 2024
Jobless claims resume their lovely habit of beating expectations (especially nice given last week's large and unusual miss). For those on the Fed who think employment causes inflation, this will feel like justification for yesterday's panic.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, December 12, 2024
It's rare to get a miss in jobless claims, but we got a big one this morning. The absolute level is still low, but it's still attention-getting -- and one more little thread in the narrative that will keep the Fed on track for a cut at next week's FOMC.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, December 5, 2024
Initial claims miss a little bit, for the first time in many weeks. But continuing claims beat by more. The really key thing is that our "Truflation" real-time CPI indicator finished out November with an outright deflationary reading of -1.4% at an annual rate, setting up for a delicious beat just before the FOMC meets. So far December is showing a similar deflation.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Wednesday, November 27, 2024
Everything is going really right. Claims beat again. And our real-time inflation indicator, "Truflation," is showing mild deflation as we wrap up November. So the CPI report the Fed sees just before the December FOMC meeting will be very favorable to another 25 bp rate cut.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, November 21, 2024
Claims low again. Claims beat again. The real news is that our "Truflation" real-time CPI tracker is now in outright deflation in November with two thirds of the month completed. This sets up for a great CPI number just before the December FOMC, breaking the little losing streak of misses that seem to be making the Fed think twice about another cut.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, November 14, 2024
Claims low again. Claims beat the consensus again. It's a beautiful world in the high-frequency data.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, November 7, 2024
Claims low -- and they beat the consensus. Forward earnings growth accelerates. President-elect Trump, you have your boom if you can keep it.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, October 31, 2024
Claims beat yet again. That, and yesterday's ADP payrolls boom, is setting up for a nice jobs report tomorrow. The bad news is that it's the last day of the month, and the real-time "Truflation" CPI estimator is still pointing to a hot October, at 3.38% at an annual rate. That's a huge improvement from the scary estimates earlier this month, but it would still be a bad miss.