The Chicago Fed's bank stress index continues to register no systemic risk arising from recent credit events. Our "Truflation" estimate of real-time CPI shows deepening price deflation in October, now for both headline and core. Jobless claims and DOGE data remain unavailable due to the government shutdown.
High-Freq Data Monitor
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, October 16, 2025
We don't have jobless claims data now for three weeks. But all our other high-frequency data comes from non-government sources. So we can report that everything looks great. In the wake of two alarming default events, no stress is showing up in the banking system. And our "Truflation" real-time estimate of CPI for October, so far, is in downright deflation -- headline very much so, core slightly.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, September 25, 2025
Jobless claims crazy low, and below the consensus. Like we keep saying -- the Fed is panicking about the jobs market for all the wrong reasons. It's tight, not loose. And in the background, national office utilization breaks out to new post-pandemic highs as people gradually keep returning to the (non-home) workplace.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, September 18, 2025
Well, that was easy. Initial jobless claims beat the consensus and fall sharply back to normal low levels after last week's scare. Continuing claims fall, and beat, too.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, September 11, 2025
New claims miss, and come in at the worst since January 2001. Continuing claims beat. We can explain the shortfall in payroll growth by the self-deportation of immigrants, but not new claims. When they leave the country, they leave their jobs and can't make claims. Hardly a definitive recession signal, but definitely pointing in the wrong direction. It has our attention.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, September 4, 2025
New claims miss, continuing claims beat -- both low. We're expecting a tepid jobs report tomorrow as the economy adjusts to vast self-deportation of recent immigrants.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, August 28, 2025
Another brilliant week of high-frequency data, with new and continuing claims at low levels and beating the consensus, and with S&P 500 forward earnings and bank lending making new all-time highs.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, August 21, 2025
A little bump up in new jobless claims, but nothing to make Powell say anything at Jackson Hole tomorrow that he wouldn't have said anyway. Our "Truflation" measure of CPI is running negative -- that is, deflation -- month-to-date for August. Sadly, that won't make any difference to Powell either. Remember when there was so much inflation just a few short years ago and he couldn't see it? Now there is none, and it's all he can see. Yes, we want an independent Fed. But not one that is independent from reality.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Wednesday, August 13, 2025
CPI was tame, PPI wasn't. But jobless claims remain low, and both new and continuing beat the consensus. The high-frequency data is all very stable.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, August 7, 2025
Another low new claims number, another new high for S&P 500 forward earnings. DOGE continues to clank along at a slow pace in driving job losses in the Federal government and federal-adjacent locales -- but the scale is small in the grand scheme of things.