New and continuing claims fall, and beat the consensus (again). Do you remember just two weeks ago one slightly elevated data point was evidence of recession right here and right now?
High-Freq Data Monitor
High-Freq Data Monitor
Wednesday, August 7, 2024
The great news is that the consensus for new jobless claims was calling for a drop from last week's big number -- and then we beat it! Our "still no recession" call is looking good. The not so great news that that "Truflation" is now showing August month-to-date CPI The not so great news that that "Truflation" is now showing August month-to-date CPI growing at a 10% annual rate, reversing two months of deflation (including July, to be officially reported next week -- look for a nice beat). But the relieving news for August is it's all one category -- housing -- and we still have the better part of a month to see if that calms down.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, August 1, 2024
A miss in claims to the worst level in a year (but remember, a year ago the economy was in a red-hot growth boom). Most important, "Truflation" finished out July with outright deflation of 2.29% at an annual rate. The Fed's going to love all this.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, July 25, 2024
After a blockbuster GDP print, the hits just keep on coming. Jobless claims fall after last week's false alarm, beating the consensus. Our "Truflation" real-time inflation indicator is showing July CPI shaping up for only 0.39% at an annual rate, setting up for another big Fed-pleasing beat.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, July 18, 2024
Claims miss, moving back to the top of the recent range. The "Truflation" real-time inflation gauge shows July CPI at-target, midway through the month.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, July 11, 2024
The disinflation continues, and both new and continuing claims beat for the first time in several weeks.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Wednesday, July 3, 2024
New claims miss, remaining at a low level but slightly elevated from where they've been the last couple months (and the claims-implied unemployment rate actually falls by 1 bp). But the big high-frequency news continues to be in inflation. Our "Truflation" real-time estimate of CPI shows June closing out with outright deflation for the month at 1.07% (at an annual rate). So far in July it pencils out to 2.34% deflation.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, June 27, 2024
New claims beat for the first time in three weeks, and the little bump of two weeks ago is revised away. But the important thing is our trusty Truflation realtime CPI model -- with three days to go in June, which will be the second anniversary of the peak in US inflation, it looks like the month will show outright deflation. Nice set-up for the CPI release in two weeks.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, June 20, 2024
Claims miss slightly, but fall from last week's surprise move higher. Truflation month-to-date June is coming in comfortably below the Fed's target.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, June 13, 2024
New claims rise to the highest level in 44 weeks -- still a low number, but directionally not a good thing. Continuing claims rise, but insignificantly -- so the claims-implied unemployment rate moves up only 6 bp to a ridiculously low 1.36%. In other news, the Producer Price Index more than confirms yesterday's great CPI news -- a dovish beat, and a big one, showing outright PPI deflation in May. We've updated yesterday's "Data Insights: CPI/PPI" for the new news (see the last two pages).