In client conversations every day, the recession narrative just won't die. Yet this morning's substantial beat in claims, with new claims the lowest since September, shows that our boom just continues to boom.
High-Freq Data Monitor
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, January 11, 2024
The high-frequency data is still bullet-proof. Big beats in claims move the implied unemployment rate to its lowest level since October.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, January 4, 2024
Is one week too long ago for everyone to remember how misses in claims got everyone all spun about recession again? Well, this week the beats were bigger than last week's misses. The high-frequency data gives us no reason to worry about imminent recession.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, December 28, 2023
We end a year of recession-proof high-frequency data with bank credit in loans and leases $178 billion higher than the week Silicon Valley Bank failed.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Friday, December 22, 2023
Claims beat again. It's a boom we're in, I tell you. It's a boom. And to all a good night.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, December 14, 2023
Strong beat in initial claims, small one in continuing. Even gasoline consumption is perking up. The high-frequency data looks fantastic.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, December 7, 2023
Continuing claims beat significantly, and the claims-employed unemployment rate falls sharply. The only one of our high-frequency data sets that isn't showing a continuing boom is gasoline consumption, off almost 7% from pre-pandemic levels. But maybe this tells its own boom story -- the productivity growth powering the boom is itself powered by a post-pandemic mobility re-think in which we just don't need to move around as much to produce the same output (and more). And that, in turn, speaks volumes about sticky low oil prices in the face of record-low inventories.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, November 30, 2023
Discount stores report the best year-over-year sales growth in over a year. But a miss by continuing claims drives the implied unemployment rate slightly higher (from an insanely low base).
High-Freq Data Monitor
Wednesday, November 22, 2023
Big beats in new and continuing claims -- the leading edge of the labor market looks incredibly strong heading into the holidays. But here's more of a surprise: a big improvement in our bank stress indicator!
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, November 16, 2023
Quick! Call the recession cops! Misses in both new and continuing claims (enough to cause the claims-implied unemployment rate to soar by an astonishing 1 basis point).