US air passenger traffic is now fully back to the pre-pandemic level. But the economy us more than 5% bigger in real terms. Lots of output gap to fill in this productivity-led boom.
High-Freq Data Monitor
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, June 8, 2023
New -- a high-frequency view of CPI from Truflation (see page 8, every week). Their real-time call on trailing 30-day inflation from daily data: 1.96% year-on-year. Meanwhile, the worst new claims number in a year and a half. But the claims-implied unemployment rate is lower than it was six weeks ago.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, June 1, 2023
Bank lending stays flat -- but new and existing claims both beat, and air passenger traffic breaks out to a new high. No landing to be seen.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, May 25, 2023
The labor market continues to surprise everyone (but us) with another beat in claims. Virtually by definition, you can't have a recession without a rollover in payrolls. And you can't have that without a rise in claims. So far, so good.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, May 18, 2023
Nice week-on-week drops in new and continuing claims, both beating the consensus. Forward earnings keep rising. Bank credit sill above pre-SVB levels. Amazing resiliency. Now with inflation collapsing we have total victory in our grasp, if the Fed will just accept the good news.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, May 11, 2023
A miss in new claims -- in fact, it was the worst absolute number in 18 months. But the claims-implied unemployment rate ticked up by a mere 1 bp. Separately, PPI beat expectations -- all good news for rate cuts.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, May 4, 2023
A small miss new claims, but a nice beat in existing claims -- so the claims-implied unemployment rate falls, and supports our model's prediction of a beat in tomorrow's payrolls.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, April 27, 2023
The labor market remains a house of brick -- big beats in new and continuing claims, and the claims-implied unemployment rate downticks 1 bp.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, April 20, 2023
Banking conditions continue to ease. Claims rose a bit, and missed. But the claims-implied unemployment rate ticked lower. Hanging in there...
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, April 13, 2023
No recession yet in the high-frequency data. The Chicago Fed's financial stress index loosens up a bit. And there was a small miss in new claims, but a small beat in continuing claims. Meanwhile, a very dovish beat in the Producer Price Index, across all categories (we've updated yesterday's CPI report to show it).