This morning James Bullard called for a 7% policy rate -- because he doesn't like the fact that the data, including today's beats in new jobless claims, isn't showing signs of recession. He might want to note, instead, that year-on-year inflation has been falling steadily since June.
High-Freq Data Monitor
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, November 10, 2022
The only soft spot in the high-frequency data is year-ahead S&P 500 forward earnings. It's not trivial to see it sagging a bit -- but nothing else we track is sagging at all.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, November 3, 2022
Powell to high-frequency data: "I'll huff and I'll puff and I'll push on a string." After 4-1/2 months of extreme rate hikes, no sign of weakness.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, October 27, 2022
With this week's edition, we say goodbye to an old friend. Google has discontinued publishing mobility data from tracking cellphones. A sign that the Covid crisis is over (or that Google is having to cut back on non-revenue generating non-necessities).
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, October 20, 2022
There's some evidence of cooling -- not yet chilling -- in some of the data. But the all-important labor market, as reflected in jobless claims, remains "weirdly resilient" no matter how much the Fed tries to poison it.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, October 13, 2022
If you insist on believing that too many people with jobs creates inflation, then you can blame another week of high-frequency data in which claims refuse to crack no matter what the Fed does -- and all those nasty inflation-producing workers insist on eating in restaurants and flying on airplanes despite admonishments from their betters.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, October 6, 2022
Oh joy. New claims and continuing claims overshot the consensus -- so hopefully that will satisfy Powell's appetite for human misery this week. Sadly (from Powell's perspective), while they missed, they are still at historically low levels. Life is good -- for the moment.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, September 29, 2022
Powell thinks joblessness fixes inflation. He'll be disappointed that new and continuing claims beat the consensus again, and that the claims-implied unemployment rate fell. Beatings will increase until morale improves.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, September 22, 2022
New claims and continuing claims low again, beat expectations again. The high-frequency data looks great across the board. The economy doesn't seem to be responding as planned to the Fed's sadistic policy program.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, September 15, 2022
"Weirdly resilient." That's what we call this economy, despite the Fed's best efforts to destroy the demand side in order to save the supply side or something like that. There's mostly wonderful in this week's high-frequency data. Do your worst next week, Jay.