You can still see the imprint of Omicron in the high-frequency data. But jobless claims are calming down, and the implied unemployment rate is now within 2 bp of the prepandemic benchmark.
High-Freq Data Monitor
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, February 3, 2022
As the peak of the Omicron wave recedes into the past, new claims fall (and beat the consensus). Continuing claims missed, but it was enough to drop the implied unemployment rate by a basis point.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, January 27, 2022
Continuing claims rise, new claims fall -- enough to slightly push down the implied unemployment rate despite the Omicron case-wave. Somewhat remarkable considering the deterioration in most high-frequency data.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, January 20, 2022
Omicron absenteeism strikes at last. Misses in both initial and continuing claims, and a rise in the claims-implied unemployment rate, match the deterioration in high-frequency data we've been seeing now for three weeks.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, January 13, 2022
Big miss for new claims, but a bigger beat for continuing claims. So the claim-implied unemployment rate drops sharply, to within a mere 6 bp of its pre-pandemic low. But Omicron is taking its toll -- all our high-frequency indicators or remobilization are in an alarming lull.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, January 6, 2022
Good news for remobilization and for the non-green energy economy -- US gasoline consumption marks new high above the pre-pandemic level for the first time!
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, December 30, 2021
Nice beats in initial and continuing claims bring the implied unemployment rate down to 1.45%, a new recovery low just 10 bp above the pre-pandemic level. Happy New Year indeed!
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, December 23, 2021
A mixed pre-Christmas week. No change in the claims-implied unemployment rate, while restaurant seatings fall and air travel rises.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, December 16, 2021
A little miss in initial claims. A good beat in continuing. So the claims-implied unemployment rate falls back to the post-pandemic low at 1.56%.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, December 9, 2021
New claims beat big, but continuing claims missed -- and rose. So the claims-implied unemployment rate ticked up for the first time in many weeks, to 1.64%.