New claims miss slightly, continuing claims beat slightly. The data looks good, but gasoline consumption and automobile freight remain the laggards.
High-Freq Data Monitor
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, April 14, 2022
The high-frequency data looks amazingly good -- but there was an uptick in new claims, and the implied unemployment rate did move up a couple basis points, from an unbelievable low level.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, April 7, 2022
All the high-frequency data is looking weirdly good -- especially gasoline consumption which, despite the price, has made a new post-pandemic high.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, March 31, 2022
New claims miss, continuing claims beat. Altogether, the implied unemployment rate makes a new low, pointing to another big jobs report tomorrow.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, March 24, 2022
Big beats in claims move the implied unemployment rate to a new low. You can almost smell the economic weakening in the air, but it's really not showing up in the high-frequency indicators.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, March 17, 2022
Powell was right about one thing: the high frequency data -- which should be just starting to show and symptoms of shock from higher gasoline prices -- reveals an amazingly strong labor market. Beats in new and continuing claims send the implied unemployment rate to another new low below the pre-pandemic benchmark.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, March 10, 2022
The high-frequency data is all showing just a little chill in the air. The prospect of nuclear combat toe-to-toe with the Russkies will do that.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, March 3, 2022
Another new low for the claims-implied unemployment rate, even lower than before the pandemic!
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, February 24, 2022
Mission accomplished. The claims-implied unemployment rate has fallen to 1.27%, for the first time below the 1.35% achieved before the pandemic. Did Russia really have to attack Ukraine today? Just when things were going so well...
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, February 17, 2022
A big miss in new claims moves the implied unemployment rate up somewhat. But nowadays that week-lagged series isn't high-frequency enough. A better indicator of the end of the Omicron micro-recession is the huge resurgence in restaurant seatings -- 20 of 40 reporting states are above pre-pandemic levels.