The horrors, the horrors. New and continuing claims miss slightly, so the claims-implied unemployment rate ticks up 11 bp -- to 13 bp better than before the pandemic!
High-Freq Data Monitor
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, June 30, 2022
All the high-frequency data is hanging in there -- but that's not the big news this morning. Headline and core PCE inflation for May both beat expectations, and core YOY is now lower for the third month in a row.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, June 23, 2022
New claims missed a little, continuing claims beat. Still no signs of recession in the high-frequency data.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, June 16, 2022
If the Fed is going to crash this economy, you sure can't see any signs of it yet in the high-frequency data!
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, June 9, 2022
No recession signs in the high-frequency data. New claims missed a little, continuing claims beat. Hanging in there, baby.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, June 2, 2022
Recession? What recession? Beats in new and continuing claims drive the implied unemployment rate to a new low at 1.04%, below the already low 1.33% before the pandemic.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, May 26, 2022
The claims-implied unemployment rate ticks up slightly -- but restaurant seatings nationwide are above the pre-pandemic level. High-frequency data just doesn't support a recession scenario.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, May 19, 2022
Much-needed good news: our weighted Social Distancing Index still hasn't fallen back to the December lows, but now many individual states are showing less "stay-at-home" behavior than before the pandemic. The least locked-down states -- an odd assortment led by the odd-couple of Delaware and Alaska -- are now less locked down than ever.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, May 5, 2022
Whatever the markets are looking at today it sure ain't the high-frequency data -- it all looks great!
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, April 28, 2022
Low-frequency GDP prints negative -- and at the same moment, high-frequency claims data shows an even lower implied unemployment rate than before the pandemic. Hmmmm....