A gigantic beat in new jobless claims is the good news. The bad news is that the "Truflation" real-time CPI simulator continues to show inflation running hot as October wraps up. It's setting up for a second-in-a-row miss when actual CPI data is released in November. That will be after the Fed meets, but they won't like it.
High-Freq Data Monitor
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, October 17, 2024
Fear no more the heat of the sun, nor the winter's furious rages. Despite more storms, new jobless claims beat the consensus and fall sharply.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, October 10, 2024
The big news is the jump in new jobless claims. At 258,000 it's the biggest number since June 2023 -- which was the launchpoint for a subsequent 5% real GDP growth quarter. Obviously this is weather-related. But if it keeps the Fed on track for another 25 bp cut at the November FOMC, then even data-noise can be useful. It offsets this morning's miss in CPI (a miss that still has headline CPI below the Fed's target for the month). Market-implied probabilities of a November cut rose after the claims and CPI data were released.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, October 3, 2024
It's too soon to see an effect, if any, from the port strike. For now, the high-frequency data is lovely, with claims low (new ones missing slightly, continuing ones beating slightly). The only bad news is our "Truflation" real-time estimate of CPI, which continues to run quite hot.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, September 26, 2024
Anyone who thinks the Fed is going to cut 50 bp again in November needs to look at this high-frequency data. New claims are incredibly low, and they beat the consensus. Our "Truflation" inflation indicator is ticking up MTD September, suggesting a bad miss when CPI is reported in mid-October.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Wednesday, September 18, 2024
Looks like Powell was right (as were we). Nice beats in new and existing claims show the labor market is not in any sort of alarming stress. On the other hand... our "Truflation" real-time inflation gauge is creeping up, looking like September CPI will be a little above the Fed's 2.5% target, at 3.1% (but there's still a third of the month to go).
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, September 12, 2024
As the 2s-10s yield curve flirts with disinversion (historically, a way better recession indicator than inversion), the high-frequency data remains universally strong. New claims missed ever-so-slightly (at a low level). Continuing claims exactly at expectations (at a low level). And as we start looking ahead to September CPI, our "Truflation" real-time indicator has settled into a nice gentle deflation month-to-date.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, September 5, 2024
So much scary labor market news this week -- but claims beat again, fall from last week, and remain incredibly low. How bad can it really be?
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, August 29, 2024
The high-frequency data is a world of -- ahem -- joy. Claims beat (and fall). Bank lending expands. August "Truflation" is wrapping up the month well below the Fed's CPI target. All good.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, August 22, 2024
New claims low and at-consensus. Existing low and beats. Despite payroll data getting downgraded based on the same state-level data from which claims are derived, claims continue to look fabulous and consistent with an ongoing expansion. Best news for the Fed: our "Truflation" real-time CPI-tracker has come down from high levels at the beginning of August to now a mere 0.70% at an annual rate, month to date.