New and continuing claims miss, so the "labor market weakness" crowd that has been gathering all week on Wall Street will have something to talk about ahead of tomorrow's payrolls. Just remember that new claims are lower than they were four weeks ago (when they were already incredibly low).
High-Freq Data Monitor
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, May 30, 2024
A new all-time record set for TSA air-passenger clearances in a single day. We're back, baby. Meanwhile in low-frequency backward-looking data, Q1 core PCE inflation was revised lower.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, May 23, 2024
Bank credit rises, systemic risk falls, new claims drop (and beat the consensus). Sorry, no hard landings today. We're fresh out.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Wednesday, May 15, 2024
New and continuing claims miss again slightly, but last week's upward blip is almost entirely erased. The best news is that Truflation's realtime inflation monitor, which correctly picked up the Q1-2024 bump in inflation, has now reverted to outright deflation for May so far.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, May 9, 2024
A miss in new claims, and the highest level in 37 weeks. But we're still dealing with microscopic numbers. The claims-implied unemployment rate ticked up by a mere 2 basis points, from 1.34% to 1.36%. We're not worried yet.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, May 2, 2024
Yet another double-beat in new and continuing claims. Meanwhile, while Powell worries about the economy losing momentum as post-pandemic re-opening gets completed, our Kastle Index of urban office utilization still languishes at a mere 50% -- implying a great deal more re-opening still ahead.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, April 25, 2024
Who are you going to believe? Backward looking GDP shows a growth deceleration and in inflation acceleration. The high-frequency data shows an ongoing boom, with (once again) beats in both new and continuing claims (from already wonderfully low levels).
High-Freq Data Monitor
Wednesday, April 17, 2024
New and continuing claims both beat expectations (again). This is getting ridiculous. At some point the consensus is going to have to capitulate and realize we are in a post-pandemic productivity-led boom.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Wednesday, April 10, 2024
The best news in the high-frequency data is the real-time Truflation measure of consumer price inflation. It accurately predicted the heating-up over January, February and March. Now, so far in April, it is detecting downright deflation.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, April 4, 2024
Bank credit in loans and leases at new highs, and the banking stress index keeps falling. New claims miss, existing claims beat. It's a beautiful day in the high-frequency neighborhood.