Restaurants, air travel and retail definitely had a moment over New Year's week.
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Thursday, December 31, 2020
We predicted long ago, when the lights of the world were going out, that the jobless claims-implied unemployment rate would end the year at 4%. Close enough, at 4.14%. Happy New Year!
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Wednesday, December 23, 2020
Our Housing Transaction Value Index cools slightly -- which is to say it has fallen from white-hot to red-hot.
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Thursday, December 17, 2020
Data continues to be sluggish, but the claims-employed unemployment rate managed to fall, and social distancing continues to back off its Thanksgiving peak.
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Thursday, December 10, 2020
The increase in social distancing we've observed has spilled over into the labor market, with the claims-implied unemployment rate rising from 4.3% to 4.5%. This is the first weekly rise since early September.
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Thursday, December 3, 2020
Mobility has fallen sharply amid rising Covid cases. But the high-frequency dashboard looks great, including new and continuing claims beating smartly, and the implied unemployment rate falling to a new low of 4.3%.
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Wednesday, November 25, 2020
A new high for air passengers as we head into the Thanksgiving holiday, and the claims-implied unemployment rate falls yet again. It's a struggle, but the V-shaped recovery is marching on.
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Thursday, November 19, 2020
New claims missed a little, continuing claims beat a little (even with revisions). So the implied unemployment rate falls to a new recovery low of 4.8%. Other high-frequency data has stalled out, along with the Social Distancing Index.
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Thursday, November 12, 2020
Even with a new virus flare-up, the data continues to confirm a strong V-shaped recovery, with the claims-implied unemployment rate falling to 5.1%.
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Thursday, November 5, 2020
Continuing claims continue to fall, and new claims are about steady. So the implied unemployment rate has fallen to an astonishing 5.5%.