The New York Times is slipping -- reporting that the much-vaunted accuracy of CDC vaccination statistics isn't so accurate. Turns out the agency has been reporting booster shots as first-doses, exaggerating the share of Americans who have been vaccinated. But never fear. The Times says "The C.D.C.’s data on vaccination rates are still considered to be reliable...experts say." What would we do without those experts?
Covid-2019
Covid-2019
Saturday, December 11, 2021
New today, we are showing the Omicron share of new cases in the our large case/fatality/CFR rate charts. It's only available for a few countries, and some of the data looks off (South Africa is showing 100%). No data for individual US states yet.
Covid-2019
Friday, December 10, 2021
In terms of simple technical analysis, the question is whether global daily new cases is going to surpass the August highs (which themselves did not surpass the May highs). It's close. But if not, then we're looking an established global downtrend.
Covid-2019
Thursday, December 9, 2021
Almost two weeks ago when we highlighted the predictable cycle of fear-peddling, with the media fretting that "officials worry" that Omicron "might be more transmissible" and "experts fear" that "vaccines possibly won't work" and so on... a smart client said the inevitable next step was for "doctors to speculate" that it "could be attacking children." Bingo: that's the lead story in today's New York Times, along with a companion piece about how children are the pandemic's "forgotten grievers." What's next? Omicron in ice cream? Children's ice cream, Mandrake?
Meanwhile, in the UK, PM Boris Johnson orders tighter restrictions after his staff was outed for mocking videos about, yes, tighter restrictions.
It's all in "Recommended Reading."
Covid-2019
Wednesday, December 8, 2021
In "Recommended Reading," the media is brimming with headlines that all you need to protect yourself from Omicron is an extra dose of a vaccine that they said wouldn't protect you from Omicron.
Covid-2019
Tuesday, December 7, 2021
9 days after we first alerted you, headlines in the New York Times and elsewhere are screaming that Omicron isn't such a threat after all. What was it all about in the first place? Check the Meme of the Day for the answer (thanks to a clever client).
Covid-2019
Monday, December 6, 2021
Genetic fragments of the common cold have been found in the Omicron variant genome, possibly contributing to its putatively greater transmissibility. Evidence of gain of function tampering? Not necessarily... viruses mutate by recombination with other viruses as they pass through host populations. See "Recommended Reading."
Covid-2019
Sunday, December 5, 2021
Seems like all of President Biden's mandates and hectoring did nothing to inspire more people to get vaccinated. Now comes the Omicron scare. Suddenly so many people want vaccinations they have to wait in line for them. See "Recommended Reading."
Covid-2019
Saturday, December 4, 2021
While we watch and wait to see what Omicron really does to case-loads, it's worth remembering that there have been recent surges in several jurisdictions already, without it -- especially Europe. Other jurisdictions, say Iran, saw record surges a couple months ago that have now completely collapsed. If we have learned anything it is that we have learned nothing. This virus seems to have an inscrutable agenda all its own.
Covid-2019
Friday, December 3, 2021
Technical note: there are errors at one of our data sources this morning causing our country-by-country measure of the Delta variant share to be inaccurate.
In "Recommended Reading," several vaccine makers are saying they are optimistic that their existing formulations can handle Omicron. That's good. Because now a European Union official is echoing Germany's call to make vaccinations mandatory. Meanwhile, in the land of the free and the home of the brave, Joe Manchin (D-WV) says he will vote with Republicans to outlaw vaccine mandates on businesses. Hmmm... who knows what else he might side with the GOP on...