The tape bomb exploded right on schedule yesterday. The CDC reported the first Omicron variant case in the US, a visitor to South Africa. Lost in the angst is the CDC's statement that the patient "had mild symptoms that are improving" and that all "close contacts have been contacted and have tested negative."
Covid-2019
Covid-2019
Wednesday, December 1, 2021
Chilling stuff, as incoming German Chancellor Schultz says he wants mandatory Covid vaccinations. After mandates, after passports, this is the fatal next step. We suppose it was inevitable. See "Recommended Reading."
Covid-2019
Tuesday, November 30, 2021
It was the inevitable next tape-bomb -- the CEO of Moderna fears that his vaccine won't fight Omicron (see "Recommended Reading"). You know what the next one is going to be -- the first Omicron case in the US. This story writes itself, doesn't it? By the way, don't worry too much about the large number of US new cases reported today -- much of that reflects five days' worth of data delayed due to the Thanksgiving holiday and the weekend.
Covid-2019
Monday, November 29, 2021
In our daily report's most popular feature at upper-left on page one, it's odd that South Africa isn't even close to making the list of countries with top-ten number of new cases.
Covid-2019
Sunday, November 28, 2021
Turn to the last page -- the chart of South Africa. See that big jump in new cases? You don't? Look closer. There it is, sort of. Now panic. You know you want to.
Covid-2019
Saturday, November 27, 2021
In "Recommended Reading" we have links to all the latest on the "Omicron" variant -- including the WHO's documentation on how they picked that "simple, easy to say" name. No coincidence, perhaps, that they skipped the Greek letter "Xi."
We also remember the great Stephen Sondheim, the last of our surviving heroes, who died yesterday. Among others, we link to his 1968 article on crossword puzzles that started us on the road to a career in investing. What a wonderful world -- you can be mentored in ways you never expect by someone you've never even met. We will miss him.
Covid-2019
Friday, November 26, 2021
We've been wondering out loud when the next variant scare would come, and here it is: 1.1.529, or "nu" to its friends. Except for one known case in Belgium, far it's a S. African thing, where cases and fatalities (and the case-fatality ratio) have been rising. But that pattern is not unique, occurring in other places in the world where there is no evidence of nu at all. Quick-take: we're not worried about 2020-type lockdowns again, but the world runs on the confidence of individuals and firms acting in their own interests, so even a mere scare can be a blow to growth.
Covid-2019
Thursday, November 25, 2021
On a world basis, we're definitely in a fifth wave of new cases, but by no means yet of fatalities. Funny how all the media accounts call this the fourth wave. You know why? It's because the first wave in the spring of 2020, which seemed so scary and severe that we mistakenly shut down the global economy in a failed attempt to stop it, is now so small relative to subsequent waves that it barely shows up as a wave at all on the charts.
Covid-2019
Wednesday, November 24, 2021
We were encouraged to see this headline on a story coming in this weekend's New York Times Magazine: "Could Covid Lead to Progress?" We thought it would illuminate details of the "post-war productivity-led boom" we've been talking about for over a year. Sigh, sadly not. The "progress" is basically that people have been scared out of their wits by the pandemic, and when the next one comes we will all go collectively insane about it faster.
Covid-2019
Tuesday, November 23, 2021
A new benchmark achieved: with 72.9% of the US adult population immunized by double-vaccination, and 17.1% previously infected, then (assuming no overlap) we just hit 90% in terms of the herd immunity threshold. Meanwhile, in Germany, the health minister said yesterday "just about everyone in Germany will probably be either vaccinated, recovered or dead."