Covid-2019

Covid-2019
Saturday, January 1, 2022
The New York Times is headlining a "scientists say" story, in which "scientists say" what TrendMacro told you weeks ago: that new cases in South Africa have peaked, and have been falling, indicating that the Omicron waves hitting the US and Europe will be similarly short-lived. But don't worry about not having something to worry about. Hospitals still "may" be overwhelmed. 
Covid-2019
Friday, December 31, 2021
Global new cases hit a new high at almost 2 million. The Omicron case-wave is intersecting with holiday data lagging and clumping, leading to wildly divergent results between countries. One thing remains clear: there's no correlation between density of Omicron and the number of new cases. And another: case-fatality rates are falling everywhere.
Covid-2019
Thursday, December 30, 2021
CDC Director Walensky (yes, the one who has "feelings of doom" from time to times) defends the agency's new less stringent 5-day quarantine guideline in the Omicron wave: "it really had a lot to do with what we thought people would be able to tolerate." This is an example of what we've been saying: the US government, at this point, has little choice but to recognize that the American people are tired of living in fear and isolation, and under the thumb of unelected bureaucratic dictators. IMPORTANT DATA NOTE: We'd think enough days have gone by after the Christmas holidays for the new-case data to stabilize, but it's still all over the map. We're worried that our attempts to groom and smooth it are counterproductive, so with today's charts and tables we are displaying it pretty much as it is provided from reliable sources. So be prepared for some crazy-looking numbers. What's really strange is how uneven it is, with seemingly impossible large numbers coming from Europe and the US, with Asia and the developing world looking entirely normal. Oddest of all: there is no correlation between seemingly surging case-loads and the prevalence of the Omicron variant from locale to locale.
Covid-2019
Wednesday, December 29, 2021
Again, post-holiday numbers are horribly distorted to the upside by lagged and clustered reporting. We have smoothed it out on most charts, but only on some tables. Making such things worse... Oops. In Recommended Reading: "According to agency data, omicron accounted for about 59 percent of all U.S. infections as of Dec. 25. Previously, the CDC said the omicron variant comprised 73 percent of all cases for the week ending Dec. 18. But that number has now been revised to 22.5 percent of all cases." The bulls**t that launched a thousand hysterical articles about "wildly transmissible" and "ripping through the population" and so on. 
Covid-2019
Tuesday, December 28, 2021
Ignore the scary case and fatality numbers you are hearing reported today. It's the data-dump of unreported events over the holidays, all lumped into one new post-holiday business day. We've done our best to smooth it out in our charts, but there are residual anomalies (really, use caution with the numbers, especially in the tables; some of them are quite unreal).
Covid-2019
Monday, December 27, 2021
In "Recommended Reading," the whole sorry story of the vilification and suppression of Ivermectin as an at-home Covid treatment. 
Covid-2019
Sunday, December 26, 2021
Go figure. New cases today in South Africa, where every case is the supposedly "wildly contagious" Omicron, are lower than the same day last year. Meanwhile, Merry Christmas from the front page of the New York Times: "Another Christmas of Death and Distress in America’s I.C.U.s".
Covid-2019
Saturday, December 25, 2021
Merry Christmas! From everyone at TrendMacro, we wish you and your family a joyous and healthy holiday!
Covid-2019
Friday, December 24, 2021
A new all-time high for new cases on a global basis. Nevertheless, Page One of the New York Post says "All We Want for Christmas is SANITY," featuring a cri de coeur editorial proclaiming "We’ll never end the COVID pandemic if politicians keep making same mistakes." True enough, especially in New York. But at the national level, we applaud Biden's speech Tuesday: an exemplar of sanity, ruling out lockdowns and urging that schools stay open. He was gracious to the prior administration, giving it due credit for developing the vaccines. Yes, he did say his administration was spocktiling the vaccines. A sign of his age? No! It was a shout-out to Star Trek fans. 
Covid-2019
Thursday, December 23, 2021
We told you a month ago, and now studies in South Africa and the UK are confirming it: Omicron produces milder symptoms and less hospitalization. In other good news, the US Army -- yes, the US Army -- announced a new vaccine effective against all coronaviruses. This might be the proverbial cure for the common cold, not just Covid. Funny that the New York Times didn't cover that news at all. We have it all in "Recommended Reading."

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