Shocker (but not to us). Our index shows new and existing housing transactions still above pre-pandemic trends, despite headwinds that would seem to be insurmountable. Our post-pandemic boom continues to flummox the conventional wisdom.
A Few of Our Favorite Things
A Few of Our Favorite Things
Friday, May 24, 2024
New homes transaction value drops every-so-slightly below trend. But existing home transaction value, 84% of the market, mysteriously hangs in there above trend. To be sure, it's doing it with price, not volume -- but overall value is what matters.
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Wednesday, April 24, 2024
Our Housing Transaction Value Aggregate continues above the pre-pandemic trend for both new and existing homes -- remarkable resiliency, considering an apparent crisis in affordability. Meanwhile, in our measurement of public attention around the upcoming election, no candidate seems to be able to capture any real mind-share (RFK Jr. is literally a zero).
A Few of Our Favorite Things
Tuesday, March 26, 2024
Shocker! The residential real estate market is supposed to be dead, dead, dead. But our Housing Transaction Value Aggregate has recovered back above the pre-pandemic trend for both new and existing homes. Meanwhile, another shocker: our Google Trends indices of interest in our esteemed presidential candidates shows that there is, in fact, no interest.
A Few of Our Favorite Things
Tuesday, February 27, 2024
Surprising resiliency in housing, with both the new homes and existing homes components of our Housing Transaction Value Index rising, despite little relief on mortgage rates and spreads.
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Thursday, January 25, 2024
Existing home transactions fall a bit, new home transactions rise a bit. The housing market is stabilizing at a surprisingly and delightfully high level. Meanwhile, new all-time highs for capital goods expenditures.
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Friday, December 22, 2023
Downticks in the aggregate transaction volume of both new and existing homes -- no surprise. But the new homes remain above the rising pre-pandemic trend.
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Monday, November 27, 2023
Our Housing Transaction Value Index ticks down again. The existing homes component is below the pre-pandemic trend now, but holding above the post-pandemic correction. Existing homes tick down on the month, but continue to boom, firmly above the pre-pandemic trend.
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Friday, October 27, 2023
A boom month for new home sales, but existing home sales dry up significantly in the face of high lending rates. The existing home market is much larger, so overall our transaction value index has fallen below the pre-pandemic trend. Still remarkably resilient, but a crack in the armor to be sure.
A Few of Our Favorite Things
Wednesday, September 27, 2023
New orders for capital goods ex-aircraft makes a new all-time high. Recessions should be made of sterner stuff. Maybe there's a reason why the 10-year yield is at 4.5% (and maybe it's a good thing -- more on that later).