The unconventional indices for March make it pretty much unanimous -- the winter flare-up in inflation is over.
US Unconventional CPI
US Unconventional CPI
Wednesday, March 12, 2025
The unconventional data confirms the conventional -- inflation decelerated markedly in February, and January's hot readings might end up being a blip. That said, "Flexible core" CPI isn't calming down, and there's a good argument that it's a leading indicator.
US Unconventional CPI
Wednesday, February 12, 2025
The unconventional measures don't give a lot of clues as to why January was such a bad month. They just pretty much agree that it was.
US Unconventional CPI
Wednesday, January 15, 2025
Couple interesting things in the unconventional data. The hot headline CPI data goes away entirely when you look at it on a non-seasonally adjusted basis (core gets even better). Even NSA, so-called deceleration everywhere except in the specialty "flexible" indices that overweight gasoline. A good month.
US Unconventional CPI
Wednesday, December 11, 2024
The inflation indices designed to filter out outliers are all decelerating. This suggests the acceleration we saw in the conventional indices this morning is the result of only a few components, and not systemic.
US Unconventional CPI
Wednesday, November 13, 2024
The unconventional measures show that it's the "flexible" components of CPI that are strengthening (or, more accurately, recovering from deflation). The "sticky" parts continue to weaken.
US Unconventional CPI
Thursday, October 10, 2024
The official unconventional CPI indices all look great. But the two unofficial ones based on real-time prices -- Adobe and Truflation -- are hooking upward just like our monetarist model.
US Unconventional CPI
Wednesday, September 11, 2024
The unconventional indices reveal the outsized role of shelter in this morning's core CPI miss. The "sticky" indices are all worse, and the "flexible" indices are all better.
US Unconventional CPI
Wednesday, August 14, 2024
Broad confirmation of the headline inflation data in all the unconventional measures. Inflation is low and continues to fall secularly, but there was a little acceleration in July compared to June. Nothing the Fed will lose any sleep over.
US Unconventional CPI
Thursday, July 11, 2024
We've never seen such perfect unanimity among the unconventional indicators. They also agree completely with the conventional ones -- deceleration literally everywhere.