Almost all the unconventional measures are in decline, and those that aren't have stopped getting worse.
US Unconventional CPI
US Unconventional CPI
Thursday, January 12, 2023
A funny thing happened on the way to the Paul Volcker look-alike contest. Most of the unconventional inflation curves -- you know, the ones Powell has been citing for months to pretend inflation is still a crisis? -- those? -- yeah, they're pointing down.
US Unconventional CPI
Tuesday, December 13, 2022
Rollovers and peaks everywhere. Headline CPI for the month would have been sharply negative but for the seasonal adjustment pixie-dust.
US Unconventional CPI
Thursday, November 10, 2022
In our world of alternate measures, it's more good news. If it isn't rolling over outright, it's flattening out.
US Unconventional CPI
Thursday, October 13, 2022
The verdict from the panoply of unconventional indicators is clear. "Flexible" components of inflation have totally rolled over. "Sticky" components have totally not rolled over. Both are living up to their names.
US Unconventional CPI
Tuesday, September 13, 2022
The simplest "unconventional" measure of all, just good old fashioned non-seasonally adjusted CPI, contracted 0.4% in August. That's in part because the seasonal adjustment for gasoline muted its impact.
US Unconventional CPI
Wednesday, August 10, 2022
An unconventional inflation measure no one ever talks about is the "prices paid" diffusion index in the US purchasing managers indices. How come no one ever points out they've been consistently moderating all year... ?
US Unconventional CPI
Wednesday, July 13, 2022
Most of the unconventional measures have two things in common -- the more we focus on core, the lower the inflation; and short-term inflation is worse than longer-term inflation, a technical indicator of "acceleration."
US Unconventional CPI
Friday, June 10, 2022
The unconventional measures just confirm the conventional ones -- this was a terrible month for inflation. The only bright spot is good old fashioned core, falling sequentially, because it eliminates the two Ukraine-driven categories.
US Unconventional CPI
Wednesday, May 11, 2022
Seeing lots of rollovers in the alternate inflation measures -- of course the most in ones that highlight energy.