Covid-2019

We watched "Dallas Buyers Club" last night. Highly recommended, to see on the one hand how today's battle between grass-roots self-help medicine and the top-down public health establishment is nothing new. What's different is the sympathy shown for AIDS activists, versus the scathing contempt today for anyone who dares to disagree with the authorities. What has changed?

That didn't take long. We highlighted a mysterious case-wave building outside the US, and wondered why no one was speculating about a new variant that was "wildly transmissible" (experts fear) and "potentially more deadly" (doctors worry) and "resistant to vaccines" (public health officials wonder). Well, here it is: the BA.2 variant of Omicron. It's pretty obvious from the non-US case resurgence that there should be concern here -- but less, we think, concern about the virus than concern about the over-reaction of public officials. Fortunately it's happening when the Russian invasion of Ukraine is distracting them with even more salacious narratives.

Yesterday the FOMC took the party line and acted like Covid was barely worth mentioning as an economic factor going forward. You can do that based on cases and deaths in the US, which have fallen considerably. But the virus appears to be making a comeback in Europe, Africa and Asia -- even China can't hide it. It's worth considering the possibility that the virus is staging a comeback.

A new study in The Lancet on the safety of MRNA Covid vaccines -- only one tenth of one percent of vaccinations resulted in reported side effects. But of those, 22,527 (6.6%) were "serious non-death" and 4,496 (1.3%) were deaths. Acceptable damage? Who's to say? Why is it only now, so far after the fact -- after the efficacy of the vaccines has fallen into such considerable disrepute -- that were only beginning to be able to discuss such trade-offs among respectable circles?