New jobless claims low, and at expectations. Very slight miss in continuing claims. S&P 500 earnings continue to soar, and earnings reports continue to beat big. So far so good.
High-Freq Data Monitor
High-Freq Data Monitor
Wednesday, May 20, 2026
Jobless claims fall and beat the consensus. Earnings season is wrapping up, and despite the bar having been raised by massive upgrades over the last several months, the surprise factor is the fifth best in history (beaten only by the resurgence from the Covid depression). For mid-cycle, this is a new record by far.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, May 14, 2026
Jobless claims rise slightly and miss the consensus for the first time in many weeks. They had hit rock bottom, and having bounced off it, remain at levels that have to be seen as extremely low by any standards, and about average for the last four years of generally low numbers. On the other hand, we do note the move in the internals of the Chicago Fed Financial Conditions Index. The composite index is wonderfully low, and has been falling the last three weeks. But the leverage component has been rising sharply for the last couple months, and is now well above the zero line -- indicating vulnerability, even if not outright stress.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, May 7, 2026
Another big beat for jobless claims, and another stellar week for an earnings season that is tied for third best in the history of the data. Absolutely positively amazing to be happening mid-cycle.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, April 30, 2026
Recite the mantra (because it is true!) -- we're in a productivity-led boom. Despite rising gasoline prices and economic uncertainty, new jobless claims dropped sharply this week. But the real shocker is corporate earnings. While estimates have been getting upgraded at a furious pace, so far this earnings season is the best since the pandemic recovery of 2021, indeed the third best in the entire history of the data. The weighted average surprise factor for the S&P 500, with about half of companies have reported, is an astonishing 22.4%!
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, April 23, 2026
New claims miss for the first time in weeks, but only slightly, and at a very low number (the same number, in fact, as just before the attack on Iran). Forward earnings estimates continue to soar, and so far with 15% of S&P 500 companies reporting, this is the best earnings surprise season in five years. All good. Well, except for one thing. We have finally been able to fix our display of the "Truflation" real-time CPI estimate, which has been broken for the last month. It's not pretty, but at least it's right.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, April 16, 2026
Once again, not the slightest visible economic impact from high gasoline prices, with jobless claims an ultra-low 207,000 (and a nice beat). S&P 500 forward estimates continue to soar as earnings season gets underway. With only 16 out of 500 companies reporting so far, the average beat factor is coming in higher than last quarter's already ample level.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, April 9, 2026
New jobless claims rise slightly to still-low levels, but miss the consensus. Continuing claims beat. All remains solid is the high-frequency data.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, April 2, 2026
Amazing. One month into World War 3 and the biggest energy shock in history (at least according to the media hysteria), new jobless claims fall to a mere 202,000, smashing the already low consensus.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, March 26, 2026
Almost a month into the Iran energy shock, new jobless claims still very low and exactly at expectations (continuing claims low, and beat expectations). S&P 500 earnings estimates are accelerating from an already blistering pace, and last week's surprise factor was a blowout to the upside. Uh... there's just one little thing... our "Truflation" real-time CPI estimator is definitely very, very unhappy about the way March is shaping up...