Once again, not the slightest visible economic impact from high gasoline prices, with jobless claims an ultra-low 207,000 (and a nice beat). S&P 500 forward estimates continue to soar as earnings season gets underway. With only 16 out of 500 companies reporting so far, the average beat factor is coming in higher than last quarter's already ample level.
High-Freq Data Monitor
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, April 9, 2026
New jobless claims rise slightly to still-low levels, but miss the consensus. Continuing claims beat. All remains solid is the high-frequency data.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, April 2, 2026
Amazing. One month into World War 3 and the biggest energy shock in history (at least according to the media hysteria), new jobless claims fall to a mere 202,000, smashing the already low consensus.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, March 26, 2026
Almost a month into the Iran energy shock, new jobless claims still very low and exactly at expectations (continuing claims low, and beat expectations). S&P 500 earnings estimates are accelerating from an already blistering pace, and last week's surprise factor was a blowout to the upside. Uh... there's just one little thing... our "Truflation" real-time CPI estimator is definitely very, very unhappy about the way March is shaping up...
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, March 19, 2026
You couldn't ask for a stronger economic base from which to withstand an oil shock. New claims fall to 205,000 -- far below expectations. S&P 500 forward estimates continue to surge at early-cycle growth rates. No one wants an oil shock if we don't have to have one, but if you do, then this is how you want to be positioned for it.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, March 12, 2026
New jobless claims low, and better than expectations. See? This is what we mean when we say to take the reported February payroll contraction with a grain or two of salt. Separately, as earnings season winds down, we now have a 6.4% weighted-average surprise factor for the S&P 500. That's a very strong number, but we do note that it is the fourth quarter of sequential decline. It's still a great number, and the decline is small, but it's worth considering that the consensus is getting better at discounting the earnings generated in this historic productivity supercycle.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, March 5, 2026
Continued tranquility in the high-frequency data, with new claims beating and continuing claims missing, but both at very low numbers. The darker side is the earnings surprise factor for last week, which was a 4.7% miss on average across 30 reporting companies. Sectors with net misses were Energy, Financials, Comm Services, Utilities and Real Estate -- a broad front.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, February 26, 2026
New and continuing claims both low and better than consensus. Forward earnings estimates continue to make new all-time highs. In a week with some worries from the private credit sector, not the slightest evidence of systemic risk to the banking system.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Thursday, February 19, 2026
With this week’s report we introduce a new S&P 500 earnings and sales surprise monitor. As forward estimates continue to set records – as to future hopes – surprises continue to come in even stronger – as to proven reality.
High-Freq Data Monitor
Wednesday, February 11, 2026
Claims miss, but continue in their downward trend of the last couple months. The federal government, DC, Maryland and Virginia all show increases in claims.