New jobless claims beat expectations by a mile, and suggest a very strong labor market. Our granular work with the claims data to produce the DOGE tables reveals underlying issues with reliability, so we would put a health-warning on this one. But on the surface, the last jobs data the Fed will get before next week's FOMC does look very robust.
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Thursday, November 20, 2025
Supporting the sunnier view of this morning's delayed jobs report, we now have unemployment claims data for the first time in many weeks... and it looks just great. Okay, that lobbies against a Fed rate cut. On the other hand, our "Truflation" real-time CPI estimator is in outright deflation so far in November. Unfortunately, the BLS hasn't even announced when the next official CPI number will be revealed -- we can be pretty sure there won't be new data in time for the FOMC.
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Thursday, November 6, 2025
Effects of the government shutdown are already showing up in air travel throughput. But everything else is steady as she goes.
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Thursday, October 30, 2025
Still no claims or DOGE data, thanks to the shutdown. But S&P 500 forward earnings continue to break out strongly to new highs every day. Office utilization continues to inch up, with the top-three utilization cities all in Texas! And our "Truflation" real-time CPI estimator continues to show mild deflation, despite Powell's unquestioning conviction that tariffs are causing inflation.
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Thursday, October 23, 2025
The Chicago Fed's bank stress index continues to register no systemic risk arising from recent credit events. Our "Truflation" estimate of real-time CPI shows deepening price deflation in October, now for both headline and core. Jobless claims and DOGE data remain unavailable due to the government shutdown.
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Thursday, October 16, 2025
We don't have jobless claims data now for three weeks. But all our other high-frequency data comes from non-government sources. So we can report that everything looks great. In the wake of two alarming default events, no stress is showing up in the banking system. And our "Truflation" real-time estimate of CPI for October, so far, is in downright deflation -- headline very much so, core slightly.
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Thursday, September 25, 2025
Jobless claims crazy low, and below the consensus. Like we keep saying -- the Fed is panicking about the jobs market for all the wrong reasons. It's tight, not loose. And in the background, national office utilization breaks out to new post-pandemic highs as people gradually keep returning to the (non-home) workplace.
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Thursday, September 18, 2025
Well, that was easy. Initial jobless claims beat the consensus and fall sharply back to normal low levels after last week's scare. Continuing claims fall, and beat, too.
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Thursday, September 11, 2025
New claims miss, and come in at the worst since January 2001. Continuing claims beat. We can explain the shortfall in payroll growth by the self-deportation of immigrants, but not new claims. When they leave the country, they leave their jobs and can't make claims. Hardly a definitive recession signal, but definitely pointing in the wrong direction. It has our attention.
High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor
Thursday, September 4, 2025
New claims miss, continuing claims beat -- both low. We're expecting a tepid jobs report tomorrow as the economy adjusts to vast self-deportation of recent immigrants.