In "Recommended Ready," a study of "vaccine hesitancy" by demographics. As you might have expected, by politics, it is highest among the most loyal Trump supporters. But here's a surprise: by educational attainment, the most hesitant group -- and becoming more hesitant -- are PhD's.
Covid-2019
Covid-2019
Friday, August 13, 2021
Remember a couple weeks ago we were all supposed to be worried about monkeypox? Now there's a new one, in "Recommended Reading." Melioidosis -- a tropical disease never seen before in the continental US. Four cases in four states. Two fatalities. If it's not one thing, it's another.
Covid-2019
Thursday, August 12, 2021
In "Recommended Reading," a new Mayo Clinic study shows sharply diminishing effectiveness of the MRNA vaccines at preventing infections. Of course in the initial vaccine trials, and now, subjects are not deliberately exposed to infection under controlled conditions, so confounding variables have to be suspected. That said, while a lower level of effectiveness may change your personal risk-management decision about whether to get the jab, any effectiveness at all does act to damp down potential exponential spread. The more effective the better, but directionally, anything helps.
Covid-2019
Wednesday, August 11, 2021
After many days of test-positivity ratios rising in all 50 states, suddenly they are falling in five of them. As we've experienced all the various coronavirus waves, these has always been an early hint that new cases are about to start falling.
Covid-2019
Tuesday, August 10, 2021
First -- let's celebrate that today we are able to report a new milestone: 75% US adult herd immunity. On the other hand... there's an alarming US case number this morning. It is in large part "the Monday effect." Across 50 states and DC, a majority don't report cases at all for weekend days (34 failed to report on Saturday, 38 on Sunday). For Monday, only 5 failed. So this morning's 203,544 new cases nationwide, almost 4 times the average across the weekend, is mostly the result of cramming in three days of reports into one. We take certain steps to smooth out this effect for some analytic purposes and charts, but our headline US case number is always "as reported."
Covid-2019
Monday, August 9, 2021
In "Recommended Reading," a friend has pointed us to a CDC publication of more than a year ago, making the case for relocating potential Covid victims to "humanitarian settings" -- that is, camps. In one sense it reveals the over-the-top crackpot thinking that prevailed at the time. On the other hand, it is a version -- an extreme version -- of the Great Barrington Declaration idea that it is better to shield the most vulnerable as a better alternative to causing a depression by locking down everyone, vulnerable or not.
Covid-2019
Sunday, August 8, 2021
In "Recommended Reading," feels to us like the New York Times and Bloomberg are luxuriating in a little too much schadenfreude as they report on Austin, Texas's self-described "dire" shortage of ICU beds. We hear this in every Covid case wave. As always, reported capacity deliberately does not include stand-by capacity, or the ability to use the capacity of nearby cities or other states. US Department of Health and Human Services data shows, on a statewide basis, that Texas's overall ICU capacity utilization is a mere 35%. The most "dire" state is Louisiana at 44%. Come on, people.
Covid-2019
Saturday, August 7, 2021
For the first time since May the US reports more than 1,000 Covid-related fatalities. The case-fatality rate had fallen sharply in the most recent case-wave -- this might mark the end of the lag in which it starts rising again back to 2%. If it doesn't, that might suggest that the dominant Delta variant is, as we have speculated, less lethal.
Covid-2019
Friday, August 6, 2021
We've been saying all year that the technology-adoption cycle unleashed by the pandemic response would lead to a post-war boom. Here's more proof, in "Recommended Reading." From the Wall Street Journal, it's looking like the Covid vaccine could prevent Alzheimer's.
Covid-2019
Thursday, August 5, 2021
An important debate in "Recommended Reading." In the New York Times, we learn that the Biden administration is preparing a requirement that all foreign travelers to the US be vaccinated. One important omission, though. In the Wall Street Journal, why not immigrants coming across the border?