No changes in the dots -- rates are frozen in place, even as the Fed speaks of rising uncertainty and lowers its growth forecasts and raises its inflation forecasts. But a surprise: QT in Treasuries will all but halt in April, a dovish move offsetting stasis on rates.
Federal Reserve
Federal Reserve
Wednesday, January 29, 2025
"Inflation remains somewhat elevated" now instead of December's "Inflation has made progress toward the Committee's 2 percent objective but remains somewhat elevated." Well, it has made progress. Past tense. Why keep saying it? This is the same tone as December's "hawkish cut" meeting.
Federal Reserve
Wednesday, December 18, 2024
This isn't data dependency. This is data panic. Two sticky months of inflation and suddenly target is three years away.
Federal Reserve
Thursday, November 7, 2024
The FOMC statement seems designed to relegate inflation to the status of a solved problem. Back to business as usual.
Federal Reserve
Wednesday, September 18, 2024
An aggressive 50 bp cut, and an equally aggressive move down in the 2025 "dot plot" from 4-/18% to 3-3/8%. The Powell Put is very much in force.
Federal Reserve
Wednesday, July 31, 2024
Markets seem satisfied with some slender clues confirming the expected September rate cut.
Federal Reserve
Wednesday, June 12, 2024
All according to plan. The biggest news is the big move up in the "longer-run" funds rate dot to 2.75%. That's a long way below, but we haven't seen even that much optimism about the neutral rate since 2018.
Federal Reserve
Wednesday, May 1, 2024
The FOMC didn't disappoint -- it followed through on deceleration of balance-sheet run-off. If anything, the sharpness of the deceleration is an upside surprise.
Federal Reserve
Wednesday, March 20, 2024
Perfect. The Fed upgrades 2024 growth, but not the 2024 funds rate dot. They lift the other dots, including the first reading above 2.5% in more than five years for the "longer-run" representing their estimate of the neutral rate.
Federal Reserve
Wednesday, January 31, 2024
The inflation bias is gone. Risks are now in balance. The hiking bias is gone. It's now about adjustments. Nothing about the balance sheet. A dovish statement, but far from surprising.