This is it. The turning point. First time in this hiking cycle that the dots have been lowered. The 2024 dot was lowered a lot.
Federal Reserve
Federal Reserve
Wednesday, November 1, 2023
The Fed acknowledges tighter financial conditions. That takes a December hike off the table, and means the policy rate will undershoot the "dot." All to the good.
Federal Reserve
Wednesday, September 20, 2023
The "dots" for 2024 and 2025 are jerked higher. The geniuses on the FOMC are telling us now that the funds rate will only be 25 bp less than it is today at year-end next year. Madness.
Federal Reserve
Wednesday, July 26, 2023
Economic activity is now growing at a "moderate" pace, instead of a "modest" pace at the last meeting. That's worth a hike to a funds rate not seen in over two decades?
Federal Reserve
Wednesday, June 14, 2023
We wondered how this dovish "skip" would get reflected in the dots. The answer: the worst possible way. While marking down the expected unemployment rate, the FOMC marked up the 2023 year-end funds rate from 5-1/8 to 5-5/8, with CPI falling and PPI collapsing. Doesn't get worse than this craziness. No, wait. Powell hasn't started talking yet.
Federal Reserve
Wednesday, May 3, 2023
There it is. The pause. Now we wait for the presser when Powell will ruin it by telling us that the plateau at 5-1/8% will last "longer than expected."
Federal Reserve
Wednesday, March 22, 2023
A so-called "dovish hike." They probably think we should be grateful they didn't raise the "dot" for year-end 2023 -- at this point it's only a half-rate hike away. They are saying they are done. But is that good enough for a bank crisis?
Federal Reserve
Wednesday, February 1, 2023
One word changes everything. The "pace" of future rate hikes is no longer on the table. Now it's the "extent" of future rate hikes."
Federal Reserve
Wednesday, December 14, 2022
The only surprise is that there was no surprise (given yesterday's surprising CPI). So the dots went up -- but so far markets aren't believing it much.
Federal Reserve
Wednesday, November 2, 2022
Oh. My. God. The FOMC admits for the first time in this hiking cycle that it has to take lags into account. The scorched earth phase is over.