We wanted to see the third sequential drop in CPI -- but we didn't get it (but we did get one in core). In the wake of the Ukraine invasion, food has emerged as a new culprit. The good news: deflation in clocks, lamps and decorator items.
US CPI/PPI
US CPI/PPI
Wednesday, May 11, 2022
A disappointment -- month-over-month CPI was 1/3 of last month's, while consensus was for 1/6. But not the usual narrative. Gas prices fell! The worst villain was (you won't guess) health insurance. Now the Fed will have to crank up rates to make insurance costs come down.
US CPI/PPI
Tuesday, April 12, 2022
Energy explains 71% of March's inflation, and way more than all the deviation from the Fed's target. Say it along with us: "TRANSITORY."
US CPI/PPI
Thursday, March 10, 2022
Gasoline explains 26 bp of the 80 bp of inflation in February. No surprise, and it will be worse in March.
US CPI/PPI
Thursday, February 10, 2022
The headline number was hotter than we, or the consensus, expected. But as expected, rising owners' equivalent rent added over 1% at an annual rate in January.
US CPI/PPI
Wednesday, January 12, 2022
Year-on-year, CPI prints at a new cycle high at 7%. But for the month, inflation is only ("only") 5.8% on an annual basis. The first sign of "transitory"? No, wait, the word is part of the "the great resignation."
US CPI/PPI
Friday, December 10, 2021
The highest year-on-year CPI in 39 years. But at the moment, markets are okay with it because, at least, it's at expectations.
US CPI/PPI
Wednesday, November 10, 2021
A very hot inflation datapoint, dominated by energy and rent.
US CPI/PPI
Wednesday, October 13, 2021
As expected, "owner's equivalent rent" has awoken from its dormancy. It's the largest part of September's inflation, contributing 23% of the total rise in prices.
US CPI/PPI
Tuesday, September 14, 2021
Owners' Equivalent Rent is the hottest subcategory, and that's a concern for the future as rents catch up with property prices. But other than that, transitory inflation is looking transitory.