We're going to take the win. No one else said headline CPI would be negative for July. And our monetarist model gets its fourth-in-a-row sequential downtick in YOY core. Now... will Powell take the win? All he has to do is claim credit and move along.
By the way, on page 7 we have new details panels on the demographics of inflation expectations. The only people expecting hot inflation are poor, non-college educated, innumerate and from the South. We're in Dallas, so we can say that.
US CPI/PPI
US CPI/PPI
Wednesday, July 13, 2022
CPI and Core disappointed already inflamed expectations. But nevertheless our monetarist model was right: this is now the third sequential month of decline in YOY Core. We know it doesn't feel this way, and the Fed is probably not smart enough to take it this way, but we have indeed seen peak inflation.
US CPI/PPI
Friday, June 10, 2022
We wanted to see the third sequential drop in CPI -- but we didn't get it (but we did get one in core). In the wake of the Ukraine invasion, food has emerged as a new culprit. The good news: deflation in clocks, lamps and decorator items.
US CPI/PPI
Wednesday, May 11, 2022
A disappointment -- month-over-month CPI was 1/3 of last month's, while consensus was for 1/6. But not the usual narrative. Gas prices fell! The worst villain was (you won't guess) health insurance. Now the Fed will have to crank up rates to make insurance costs come down.
US CPI/PPI
Tuesday, April 12, 2022
Energy explains 71% of March's inflation, and way more than all the deviation from the Fed's target. Say it along with us: "TRANSITORY."
US CPI/PPI
Thursday, March 10, 2022
Gasoline explains 26 bp of the 80 bp of inflation in February. No surprise, and it will be worse in March.
US CPI/PPI
Thursday, February 10, 2022
The headline number was hotter than we, or the consensus, expected. But as expected, rising owners' equivalent rent added over 1% at an annual rate in January.
US CPI/PPI
Wednesday, January 12, 2022
Year-on-year, CPI prints at a new cycle high at 7%. But for the month, inflation is only ("only") 5.8% on an annual basis. The first sign of "transitory"? No, wait, the word is part of the "the great resignation."
US CPI/PPI
Friday, December 10, 2021
The highest year-on-year CPI in 39 years. But at the moment, markets are okay with it because, at least, it's at expectations.
US CPI/PPI
Wednesday, November 10, 2021
A very hot inflation datapoint, dominated by energy and rent.