Supply Chain Stress Monitor

Supply Chain Stress Monitor
Wednesday, August 17, 2022
Oh no Mr. Bill! Retail sales ex-auto and ex-gasoline surprised to the upside, and inventories are as tight as ever. Makes us think Target has lost its touch -- and makes us worry that the Fed will think there is entirely too much prosperity going on around here.
Supply Chain Stress Monitor
Friday, July 15, 2022
What kind of recession are we supposed to have when retail inventories still haven't gotten back to the pre-pandemic trend, and barely represent a month's worth of sales?
Supply Chain Stress Monitor
Wednesday, June 15, 2022
Headline retail sales missed, and shrank. Ex-auto missed, but grew. Headline, inventories are slightly above monthly sales, for one of the lowest ratios in history. Ex-autos they're below sales, and the ratio is negative. So what exactly is Target's problem?
Supply Chain Stress Monitor
Tuesday, May 17, 2022
Nice beats in retail sales -- except for autos and gas. If high fuel prices are eroding demand, that demand seems to be shifting elsewhere.
Supply Chain Stress Monitor
Thursday, April 14, 2022
Some evidence of global supply-chain easing: the speed of container ships at sea is increasing, indicating they expect faster through-put when they arrive at port.
Supply Chain Stress Monitor
Wednesday, March 16, 2022
Business inventories are now finally well above trend after two years of lagging. The problem is that sales are even further above, with no fiscal drag showing at all. So the inventory/sales ratio is still scraping the bottom.
Supply Chain Stress Monitor
Wednesday, February 16, 2022
A new member of the Data Insights family, focusing on the painful post-pandemic repair of dysfunctional supply chains in the US and the world economies. It will be published monthly, coincident with US retail sales and inventories. We'll be adding lots of new indicators, so stay tuned.

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