A lovely bump in retail sales squeezes the inventories/sales ratio. The "inventory overhang" argument for recession is dead and buried.
Supply Chain Stress Monitor
Supply Chain Stress Monitor
Tuesday, August 15, 2023
Five months into a banking crisis and a lending chill, retail sales (with or without autos) make a new all-time high, and inventories stay more than under control.
Supply Chain Stress Monitor
Tuesday, July 18, 2023
Retail sales grow, but less than last month and well below consensus -- and it's not supply chains, they're all completely restored according to all indicators. With bank lending now flat in the four months since Silicon Valley Bank failed, and CPI within a hair of the Fed's target, what possible reason is there for raising rates at next week's FOMC?
Supply Chain Stress Monitor
Thursday, June 15, 2023
Retail sales and inventories continue to grow -- the ratio is still half what it was before the pandemic. This is not even close to the kind of inventory overhang that characterizes business cycle tops.
Supply Chain Stress Monitor
Tuesday, May 16, 2023
A solid retail sales report, as one of our global supply chain stress indices logs a new all-time low. Good news if you like prosperity. Bad news if you are Jerome Powell.
Supply Chain Stress Monitor
Friday, April 14, 2023
A decline in retail sales for the month, but ex-auto and gas, only half what was feared. Meanwhile, both of the major supply chain stress indices indicate that the pandemic bottlenecks are more than over.
Supply Chain Stress Monitor
Wednesday, March 15, 2023
Our global supply chain indices are more than back to normal -- that crisis is over. On to the next one. Retail sales are soft and so is Producer Price Index inflation. This poises the Fed to pause next week (pause before cutting, that is).
Supply Chain Stress Monitor
Wednesday, February 15, 2023
It's a month of blockbusters with this morning's retail sales pushing out to new highs. Like we've been saying -- the more the Fed tightens, the faster the economy grows. Who woulda thunk it?
Supply Chain Stress Monitor
Wednesday, January 18, 2023
Bad month for headline retail sales (but ex-auto and gas they were unchanged, and inventories have been falling in proper anticipation for several months). The more exciting new is the surprising drop in the Producer Price Index. We've updated last week's Data Insights: CPI/PPI to reflect that (click here for the update).
Supply Chain Stress Monitor
Thursday, December 15, 2022
Retail sales decline. But of more interest than a mere month's data, one of our global supply chain stress indices has now entirely completed it's pandemic-era journey -- suggesting that, to the extent that supply-stresses contributed to our outbreak of inflation, they are no longer do so. At all.