Global PMI - 2025-06-03

Bad day for data – US services PMI dips ever-so-slightly below 50, with weakness in all subcategories (except prices!). And the ADP Payroll survey shows only 37,000 new jobs. Tomorrow’s unemployment claims data could be critical, but the elephant in this week’s room is Friday’s non-farm payroll report. Our payrolls model based on contemporaneous labor market data is now estimating 110,000 net payrolls (the estimate will change tomorrow when we see claims). As it stands, that would be a miss versus the consensus of 130,000. Trump is “truthing” that the Fed is “too late.” Maybe, but the futures curve is pointing to more than two cuts by year-end.