High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery - 2024-10-09

The big news is the jump in new jobless claims. At 258,000 it's the biggest number since June 2023 -- which was the launchpoint for a subsequent 5% real GDP growth quarter. Obviously this is weather-related. But if it keeps the Fed on track for another 25 bp cut at the November FOMC, then even data-noise can be useful. It offsets this morning's miss in CPI (a miss that still has headline CPI below the Fed's target for the month). Market-implied probabilities of a November cut rose after the claims and CPI data were released.