FOMC Minutes - 2023-02-21

Yes, yes, the big non-news is that almost all participants favored a 25 bp rate hike (but we knew that, because they made a 25 bp rate hike). Sadly, in this psychedelic mishmash of confused, confusing and self-contradictory deliberations and improvisations, they continue to insist that "a period of below-trend growth in real GDP would be needed to bring aggregate demand into better balance with aggregate supply and thereby reduce inflationary pressures." Then what do we make of it that they admit, here in writing, that "to the extent national unemployment increases, historical evidence indicates that even larger increases in the unemployment rate for some demographic groups -- particularly African Americans and Hispanics -- would be likely to occur"? Having made this admission, how can they possibly cause this to happen and hope to survive politically?