US CPI/PPI - 2025-03-11

February CPI, headline and core, came in within basis points of the Fed's target. This matched our "Truflation" prediction perfectly, as well as other "nowcasting" estimates. The consensus was slightly more hawkish. Our monetarist model, which was bang-on perfect last month, was even more hawkish. Delighted to be wrong. This gives the Fed the scope to consider accelerating removal of policy restriction if more recession evidence accumulates, without a strong inflation constraint. By the way, eggs were the fifth hottest irreducible category, but contributing only .019% to the month's inflation.