High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery - 2024-09-11

As the 2s-10s yield curve flirts with disinversion (historically, a way better recession indicator than inversion), the high-frequency data remains universally strong. New claims missed ever-so-slightly (at a low level). Continuing claims exactly at expectations (at a low level). And as we start looking ahead to September CPI, our "Truflation" real-time indicator has settled into a nice gentle deflation month-to-date.