High-Frequency Post-Virus Recovery - 2023-10-11

No matter how low the consensus goes, new claims keeps beating. Amazing, considering that we've been in a recession for two years according to the conventional wisdom. But the best news is S&P 500 forward earnings estimates. It's touching the old all-time highs from June 2022 when the Fed first lost its mind, recovering from a more than 6% dip. That's the true recession indicator. You can argue there was one (though you didn't see it in payrolls). But you can't argue one is imminent.