High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor - 2025-08-20

A little bump up in new jobless claims, but nothing to make Powell say anything at Jackson Hole tomorrow that he wouldn't have said anyway. Our "Truflation" measure of CPI is running negative -- that is, deflation -- month-to-date for August. Sadly, that won't make any difference to Powell either. Remember when there was so much inflation just a few short years ago and he couldn't see it? Now there is none, and it's all he can see. Yes, we want an independent Fed. But not one that is independent from reality.