High-Freq Data and DOGE Monitor - 2025-04-23

If the business cycle is the payroll cycle, and if claims precede payrolls, then we're still in an expansion: new and existing claims remain delightfully low. And all the federal and federal-adjacent DOGE victims seem to be finding new work -- on net, the DOGE effect is near zero, which implies the economy is able to absorb job seekers. In other hi-freq data, the most alarming is the second-this-year dip in 365 days ahead forward earnings. And there's a little uptick in bank stress, although it remains at low levels. Yet bank credit is at all time highs and accelerating. We're more alert to recession risk than we've been in years, but the broad front of high-freq data isn't supporting a recession call at this time.