Global PMI - 2024-05-02

A US non-manufacturing PMI print below 50, for the first time since December 2022. You remember December 2022. That was just before the economy resumed its post-pandemic boom despite unanimous recession fears. It's hard to square this number with the 8.8% upside surprise factor this earnings season -- the biggest since Q3-21. We're not dismissing data that counters our narrative -- the data is what it is, and we respect it. But we're going to look at the totality, including this morning's perfectly good jobs report.